Fox News Voter Poll: How Spanberger won Virginia governor

Democrat Abigail Spanberger wins Virginia governor’s race, defeating Republican Winsome Earle-Sears; He tapped into economic concerns and President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity in the state while tallying significant margins among reliable Democratic groups.

Spanberger will be the first woman to hold office in the Old Dominion State.

The former Virginia congressman replaces term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who when elected in 2021 became the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia in 12 years. This race surprised many because it was much closer than the 2020 presidential race the year before, when Biden defeated Trump by 10 points. This year the situation was exactly the opposite; Spanberger has well surpassed the 2024 presidential margin, which has Harris leading Trump by just six points.

Even though Trump wasn’t on the ballot, he was undoubtedly a factor in the race. Nearly six in ten voters in Virginia disapproved of his job, while more than half said they strongly disapproved. The vast majority of these voters supported Spanberger.

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Two-thirds of Spanberger supporters said their vote was clearly to show they oppose the president. That compares with nearly a third of those supporting current Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears saying it was a show of support.

Spanberger’s strong appeal to Black voters, college graduates and young people was more than enough to offset Earle-Sears’ strength among White men, White Evangelicals and those without college degrees, according to near-final data from the Fox News Voter Poll, a survey of more than 4,000 Virginia voters, as well as those who have signaled opposition to Trump.

Even the prospect of voting for any state’s first Black female governor does not seem to energize Black voters, who back Spanberger by a nearly nine-to-one margin.

Spanberger also exploited a significant gender divide. Indeed, 65% of women supported him compared to 35% for Earle-Sears, giving him a 30-point advantage; and men supported Earle-Sears by 4 points (48% for Spanberger, 52% for Earle-Sears). This left a 34-point gender gap, one of the largest gaps in recent memory.

Abigail Spanberger enjoyed the fact that 65% of women supported her, compared to 35% for Winsome Earle-Sears. (Fox News)

The men supported Winsome Earle-Sears by 4 points. (Fox News)

Neither party is very popular in the state; While half of voters say they have a negative view of Democrats, more than half feel the same way about Republicans.

But between the two candidates, Spanberger had a clear positive rating compared to Sears (more than half had a positive opinion of him) and more than half rated him unfavorably.

Voters remain pleased with Youngkin. More than half approved of his job as governor.

The most important characteristic Virginia voters looked for in a candidate was someone who shared their values ​​and was honest and trustworthy.

Values ​​voters defended Earle-Sears, while Spanberger supported integrity seekers.

Spanberger focused heavily on the economy during the campaign, particularly noting the detrimental effects the Trump administration’s efforts to subvert the government in D.C. are having on Virginia, which is home to large numbers of federal employees.

More than six-tenths of those federal employees supported Spanberger.

The economy was by far the most important issue for Virginia voters; Nearly half ranked this as the most important issue. These voters were significantly upset with Spanberger.

Health care was the second most important concern; It was another issue that hit Spanberger hard, as he faced a federal government shutdown and people potentially being cut off from health benefits.

Voters who said health care was their number one issue overwhelmingly supported Spanberger; about one in four.

Overall, Virginia voters (about six in ten) think the economy is doing pretty well. These voters supported Earle-Sears.

But when it comes to their own family’s financial situation, most said they either remain stable or fall behind. Both of these groups preferred Spanberger.

Six in ten voters who said federal budget cuts were affecting their family finances also supported Spanberger.

The two issues that caught Earle-Sears’s attention most in the campaign were the debate over transgender rights and the exposure of violent messages by the Democratic candidate for Attorney General.

Less than half of voters found messages sent by Democrat Jay Jones threatening to remove a fellow lawmaker from his position as attorney general. Those who did this were strongly offended by Earle-Sears.

Less than half of voters found messages sent by Democrat Jay Jones threatening to remove a fellow lawmaker from his position as attorney general. (Fox News)

The rest strongly supported Spanberger, saying the texts were concerning but not disqualifying, not alarming, or not informative enough.

It was suspected that some voters might split their votes, supporting Spanberger for governor and Republican Jason Miyares for attorney general. This did not happen. Democrats defecting to Miyares were held to single digits and Jones was declared the winner.

Voters who said Jay Jones’ messages were concerning but not disqualifying did not cause concern, or underinformed voters strongly supported Abigail Spanberger. (Fox News)

Voters have mixed views on transgender rights. Half said the support went too far – the stance Earle-Sears took was to place particular emphasis on the impact it would have on schools and girls’ sports. But the other half said the support didn’t go far enough or was nearly right.

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Voters have mixed views on transgender rights. (Fox News)

Those who said he went too far supported Earle-Sears by nearly four to one, while those who disagreed lashed out at Spanberger.

Ultimately, Trump’s unpopularity and the anger of many federal workers in the state were too much for Earle-Sears to handle.

Only one-third of Virginia voters are satisfied with the direction the country is heading, and while those voters overwhelmingly supported Earle-Sears, the other two-thirds gave overwhelming support to Spanberger. Nearly all four in ten people who are truly angry about the way things are going (more than nine out of ten) support Spanberger.

When asked about Trump’s immigration enforcement efforts, more than half say he has gone too far, and perhaps unsurprisingly, most of those voters support Spanberger.

Nearly all Democrats and a few Republicans voted for Spanberger. While Earle-Sears won a majority of Republicans, she failed to generate any crossover opposition. The small independent group preferred Spanberger.

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Methodology

The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey of registered voters in Virginia conducted by SSRS. This poll was conducted from October 22 to November 4, 2025, and ends at the end of voting on Election Day. The survey combines data collected from registered voters online and by phone with data collected in person from Election Day voters in 30 precincts per state/city. In the final step, all pre-election poll respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the voting mode’s share (absenteeism, early participation, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the state/city’s final voters. Once the votes are counted, the poll results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. Among the more than 4,500 Virginia voters surveyed, the estimated margin of sampling error, including design effects, is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. The margin of error is greater among subgroups.