One Nation says its ‘next stop’ is western Sydney. Good luck with that
Barnaby Joyce has declared Western Sydney One Nation’s “next stop” after winning the Farrer by-election last weekend. Big talk, but can Pauline Hanson’s party support this?
The appeal of One Nation would be to treat the outcome as a blueprint for conservative politics at the national level. But this would be a serious political misreading of Western Sydney.
Policies that resonate with regional NSW do not automatically translate to the ‘burbs. So what will it take for the orange wave to break off the coast of western Sydney?
Western Sydney is no ordinary area on the national political map. A younger, more multicultural and more economically dynamic country where voters focus heavily on opportunity, stability and long-term security.
The region has long been the center of gravity of Australian elections. Governments are won and lost here. For decades, Western Sydney has offered conservatives a path to metropolitan NSW built on a message of economic stewardship and aspiration that resonates with mortgage holders, small business owners and growing families.
This approach took place in 2010 and 2013. Coalition seats such as Bennelong, Macquarie and Banks were won on the strength of a field that spoke to the region’s desire for opportunity. But this path has narrowed. Starting from 2016, the Coalition began to lose ground. By 2022 Labor had retaken Bennelong and Reid. By 2025, it had expanded further by adding Banks and Hughes.
More importantly, the transition does not just happen from one major party to another. Voters don’t have to come back to the Coalition when they turn away from Labour. The outcome in Fowler, where an independent community provided strong support, reflected a broader political shift. Voters become increasingly open to alternatives when they feel that none of the major parties fully reflects their perspectives.
Could One Nation be the beneficiary of this unrest?
There are reasons to be skeptical. Pauline Hanson is unpopular in large swaths of a region where more than 10 percent identify as Muslim. Communities have not forgotten his comments about Islam or his statements targeting suburbs such as Lakemba.
Anti-immigration messages in Western Sydney should also be approached with caution. Approximately three-quarters of the region’s residents have at least one parent born abroad. More than 100 languages are spoken in the region and communities have roots in more than 100 languages. 170 countries.
Immigration is not an abstract political issue in Western Sydney. This is extremely personal.
This does not mean that Western Sydney voters oppose debates about immigration, border security or infrastructure pressures. Many residents are concerned about traffic congestion, housing affordability and limited public services. But Western Sydney voters tend to distinguish between practical policy debates and divisive or exclusionary rhetoric, especially if they suspect they may be the target of this mockery.
This is where One Nation faces a political ceiling in Western Sydney. The district is not guided solely by complaints policies. It is driven by longing.
What people often overlook is just how young Western Sydney really is. The region, where one-third of the population is under the age of 25, is one of the youngest regions of the country. Although One Nation is electing some younger voters across the country, its support base remains older. This creates a real challenge in Western Sydney, where young voters make up a significant and influential part of the population.
They will also struggle with voters who focus on everyday pressures rather than political grievances. People come to Western Sydney to build better lives, buy homes, start families and create opportunities for future generations. This sense of desire still exists deep within the region.
But right now, many families feel under pressure. Housing affordability is driving people away from jobs and services. Long journeys, congested roads and overcrowded public transport are part of daily life. cost of living The pressures are real, and voters are looking for practical answers that will make life easier, more stable and more secure.
Despite this, western Sydney remains one of the country’s most ambitious regions. Educational attainment rates are above the national average. Western Sydney’s economy is growing.
Most residents are first- or second-generation Australians who arrived in search of economic opportunity and stability. Small businesses are everywhere. Historically this is where the Coalition has performed strongly in western Sydney. This is where the ceiling of One Nation becomes visible.
The major parties in Western Sydney won support not through the politics of grievance but by appearing economically competent, stable and opportunity-oriented.
Western Sydney has always rewarded ambition over anger. A Nation may gain votes, but this is not the same as winning seats. Only those who can speak with desire and opportunities will be able to achieve this.
Professor Azadeh Dastyari is director of the Western Sydney Center at WSU.
Professor Azadeh Dastyari is director of the Western Sydney Centre.
