Australian Open stats reveal Demon’s chances

“Obviously he’s playing at an incredibly high level. When we play in the exhibition game [pre-Australian Open, which Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-4]He was playing very good tennis. I know what to expect.”

What do the numbers say

An in-depth look at the Alcaraz-de Minaur matches shows that the Australian’s remarkable comeback has seen the Spaniard’s figures drop from where he rose to No.1 last year.

Alcaraz’s ace rate, first serve percentage, points earned on first and second serves, holding percentage and service points earned against Minaur are lower than all players in the last 52 weeks.

But the problem is that de Minaur’s numbers suffer more.

His serve retention percentage, which was 85.2 percent last year, dropped to just 70.5 percent in five matches against Alcaraz, while his break percentage, which is how often he breaks his opponent’s serve, also dropped from 28.7 percent to 14.8 percent.

US Open double champion Pat Rafter, who described the encounter with Alcaraz as a “nightmare”, said de Minaur needed to reach the net as much as possible and use a lot of variety, including his own slice, to put Alcaraz ahead.

“But if [Alcaraz] “It will hurt him a lot if he gets there early,” Rafter said. “I think Alex needs to play around with a few things early on, see if it works and see if there are any chinks in his armour.”

Can Demon’s serve hold up?

No part of De Minaur’s game has been criticized more than his serve.

The Australian has sacrificed first serve percentage as he looks for cheaper points during his rise to the top 10, but Sinner and Alcaraz have put him under pressure in his matches to date.

However, he has never served better than at Melbourne Park last week.

Despite reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon last year, De Minaur ranked 98th in terms of unreturned first serve percentage.

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The Australian Open is played on hard courts compared to London grass, but he ranks 37th on that measure so far with 42 percent (average of 39). De Minaur had more unreturned serves than Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik in her last two wins.

His first serve percentage of 62 is one point below the tournament average but higher than the 56 percent he achieved last year.

Remarkably, de Minaur wins 79 percent of his first serve points, which ranks him 11th next to famous servers like Taylor Fritz and Hubert Hurkacz. This is a big improvement and if he can keep it up it will increase his chances against Alcaraz.

Alcaraz, who did not drop a set in this year’s event, is going with 74 percent.

Where else is Demon thriving?

De Minaur has long been regarded as one of the best returners in the world and was previously ranked No. 1 in the ATP Tour’s return metrics.

According to tournament data, it returns as usual; He ranks second behind Novak Djokovic in return points won (46%) and second behind Sinner in return games won (42%).

But none of this should surprise anyone. What may raise eyebrows is what De Minaur has done from the start, where his ability to play closer than others and attack opponents has become an art form.

De Minaur is tied for first place with Djokovic in terms of base points won at the Open (60%), but what has been a game-changer for him is his success rate on money points in the modern game.

To be a top player, you need to win your share of rallies lasting between zero and four shots, which isn’t always Minaur’s forte. While Djokovic is the tournament’s No. 1, de Minaur is equal in third place with Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton.

Australian great Sam Stosur is among those who have noticed that de Minaur is hitting a bigger ball.

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The eye test and stats show de Minaur has never played this well before, but it will come down to this against Alcaraz, a generational talent who is on his way to becoming one of the best ever.

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