why China cannot beat US AI: China’s AI reality check: Why tech leaders say beating US AI giants is unlikely anytime soon
China’s AI Leaders Lower Expectations in the Global AI Race
At the AGI-Next summit in Beijing, Justin Lin, head of Alibaba Group Holding’s Qwen open source modeling team, shared that the probability of a Chinese company surpassing US leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic with major breakthroughs in the next three to five years is less than 20%, according to a Bloomberg report. His view was echoed by executives at Tencent Holdings and Zhipu AI, underscoring a shared sense of realism in China’s AI industry.
Alibaba Executive Doesn’t Give Chance for China to Overtake US Artificial Intelligence Giants
“The bulk of OpenAI’s computing is devoted to next-generation research, whereas we are very lean – just meeting delivery demands consumes most of our resources,” Lin said, adding: “It’s an age-old question: does innovation happen in the hands of the rich or the poor?” As reported by Bloomberg.
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Zhipu and MiniMax IPOs Signal Strong Market Momentum
This warning comes at a time when Chinese artificial intelligence companies are attracting the attention of powerful investors. This week, Zhipu and Shanghai-based MiniMax Group raised more than $1 billion through public listings. MiniMax’s shares more than doubled on its first day of trading, while Zhipu’s shares are up 36% since its debut.
China’s Resource and Computing Gap with OpenAI Remains a Major Obstacle
Still, speakers at the Zhongguancun event, held in a tech hub often compared to Silicon Valley, warned that market success will not necessarily translate into leadership in cutting-edge artificial intelligence. “We just published some open-source models, and some may be excited to think that Chinese models are outpacing the US,” said Tang Jie, founder and chief AI scientist at Zhipu, as quoted by Bloomberg. “But the real answer is that the gap may actually be widening.”
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Success of DeepSeek R1 Sparks New Wave of Chinese AI Releases
But industry leaders acknowledged there has been meaningful progress. The success of DeepSeek’s R1 model in early 2025 triggered open source releases from companies ranging from Alibaba to startups, helping Chinese models close the gap on offerings from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.
Tencent and Alibaba Announce Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Priorities
Looking ahead, the focus shifts towards solving the next generation of challenges. Yao Shunyu, who recently joined Tencent from OpenAI, said Tencent is focusing on applying artificial intelligence to better serve its large user base, including integrating the Yuanbao assistant with WeChat chat history, according to the Bloomberg report. Lin noted Alibaba’s emphasis on multi-modal systems and real-world AI agents, while Tang and Moonshot AI founder Yang Zhilin emphasized updates to their core foundational models.
China’s AI Executives Call for Cooperation Against Internal Competition
Despite competitive pressures, Tang urged the industry to avoid internal rivalries. He said China’s AI companies should work together to develop artificial general intelligence, framing the effort as a contribution to global progress rather than a race defined by national rivalry.
FAQ
What did Chinese AI leaders say about catching up with the US?
They said China is unlikely to overtake US AI leaders in the next three to five years.
Who shared this view at the Beijing summit?
Executives from Alibaba, Tencent and Zhipu AI also expressed similar concerns.
