US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is Trump’s biggest gamble yet as president | Donald Trump
Donald Trump, who confessed himself, has gambled the greatest gambling with all military intervention as a way to solve stubborn geopolitical problems, not only with his political reputation and the future of the Middle East.
If the US President succeeds – and if there will be many competitor interpretations and successes in the coming weeks – it is possible to weaken Iran and reduce the global influence of a regime that has been threatening against the West for 40 years. In this process, his personal authority will be developed and there will be a victory that can worsen some of the worst authoritarian and impulsive features in the next three years.
In addition, Benjamin Netanyahu, a man who is not deeply disliked in the big parts of the world for Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and his attack on Gaza, will establish a closer alliance with the United States than ever before.
Under such a scenario, America will not be loved, but will be feared and will come from fear. After 9/11, after the land interventions and the failure of the professions in Afghanistan and the failure of the Iraq War in 2003, Trump would reconstruct the value of limited military intervention.
However, a lot can go wrong. Many leaders and diplomats in Europe, not because they have time for the Iranian government, but because Trump’s methods are dangerous and fear of the violation of nuclear nuclear evacuation agreement and violation of international law.
China, which has great interest in Iran, will want to make sure that this section does not enter a one -polar world. Russia will take lessons and are already willing to accept the danger of winning the United States, and Iran is willing to do more to help Tehran to improve its nuclear capabilities.
The Gulf states also express anger at Trump’s intervention. The Arab diplomats said that two months ago, they were trying to square Trump’s military intervention with his extraordinary speech in Riyadh. “In the end, the so-called ‘nation-makers’ has ruined more nation than the so-called ‘nation-makers’, and interventionists intervened in complex societies even they did not understand themselves,” he said.
The Gulf is afraid of being dragging into a war. Most of them thought that Iran was under close UN monitoring of a Trump, which was expected to allow Iran to enrich Uranium very limited. As a problem, it was accepted as extremely dissolved by the type of patient diplomacy of the new European diplomacy.
There is no military conflict. Until now, Iran has been thought and left behind in this war. However, it is possible for Trump to draw a longer conflict than he wants. Netanyahu has shown better than finishing themselves during starting conflicts. After being fully engaged in the Iranian conflict, Trump will have to see him to the end and connect him to the infinite foreign conflict he promised him in the footsteps of an election campaign.
If Iran refuses to send, they have options. He can abandon the non -soliferation treaty, deport the UN inspectors, and try to secretly rebuild the nuclear program. If Tehran still has a very rich enriched uranium source, nuclear scientists can try to throw it for a raw nuclear device. This would give time to try to support Tehran among his battered allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Sanam Vakil, the Middle East expert in London Thinkank Chatham House, said the US leader perceived this strike as a one -time. “Trump was careful, telegraph strikes, sent warning messages to Iran in advance,” he said. “I think it wants it to end with a negotiation, agreement and a negotiation that it can show, a victory in bringing Iran’s nuclear program back.”
However, it is full of a careful increase after such a US rise. Vakil said: “The President does not have the width of band for impatient and long -term negotiation. The Iranians want the sanctions to relax, but they do not know how much they can trust Trump, a man they say deceived them over and over again.”
The best scenario is that Iran has settled on a symbolic retaliation, as in 2020, when Trump ordered the assassination of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Qassem Suleyman. The President can then push Israel to destroy the war and encourage Iran to maintain negotiations on a new nuclear agreement.
In both cases, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke for the region with his assessment. “This morning, events will have ugly and endless consequences,” he said.
