Contributor: Russia wants what it cannot have
Vladimir Putin is a roll in the last few weeks. The first president Trump invited him to anchor. Then a three -way lap China’s president Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in China. And an invitation Great military parade In Beijing.
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin eaves Summit group photos. In February 2022, after Russia’s full -scale Ukrainian invasion, he was treated as Pariah by the US and Europe. Guilty The International Criminal Court can travel only to countries that will not arrest him on charges of genocide. In short, Moscow did not treat with respect he believed he deserved.
Trump, using the red carpet for Putin in Alaska literally – and applauding The Russians could reset the bilateral relationship as the Russians went down from the carpet. And so. But it’s not what Trump aims.
The Alaska Summit convinced the Russians that the current administration is willing to throw the resources of American global power out of the window.
Trade partners, geopolitical allies and alliances – everything is on Trump’s desk. The President of the United States believes that this shows its power; The Russians see this as a low -cost opportunity to reduce the American influence. Putin was trained by KGB to recognize weakness and exploit it.
There is no evidence that being friends with Putin and accepting Russian positions will make Moscow more willing to stop fighting in Ukraine. Minister of Russia Intensifying hybrid attacks In February in Europe, Vice President JD Vance warned Europe that it should focus on the threat of democracy ”inside. “This followed the defense secretary Pete Hegseth’s Assurance that Ukraine will never participate in NATO. Trump claimed that the US support for NATO and European support is connected to payment countries. In a situation that sends Moscow experts Explode champagneTrump did not give Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, in the oval office.Have cards”And he must stop trying to defeat Russia.
Did any of these bring Putin to the negotiation table? NO.
In fact, the Kremlin said that Trump was ready to talk about the war with Trump when he threatened. “Very, very strong” sanctions In the middle of July. This time he looked serious about it. The Alaska summit took place a month later. Trump is more likely to get all kinds of traction with Russia, with Russia. It is an unfortunate situation for the president to return now Uncertain two weeks Deadline to implement sanctions that never occur.
Russia believes it will win the war. China was a stable friend, willing to sell Russian cars and double -use technology Ends with drone He is attacking Ukraine cities. Also Russia largest buyer Crude oil and coal. Western sanctions do not bite the Russian economy, but Nibbled Far In state revenues. Europe and the United States were not willing to implement some kind of economic pressure that would seriously overcome Russia’s ability to maintain the war.
Putin continues to say that a decision of the war requires the West to address the “root causes of the war. These reasons are about the way for Russia to be treated after losing the Cold War. Three Baltic countries joined Europe as fast as possible. Central and Eastern European countries decided to become a part of NATO rather than the Warsaw Pact. When Georgia began to ask for membership in the European Union and NATO, Russia realized that it could not convince them to stay with economic appeal or soft force. He had to use force. Unable to show the charm of the embrace of drowning or the value of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia believed that he should use force to keep Ukraine with him. Grotesque reminds one of a Russian statement: “If he beats you, it means he loves you.”
The real “main reason ın of the war in Ukraine is that Russia cannot accept that the centuries -old empire does not give the old colonies the right to rule forever. Mongolia learned this. Like British. And the French. And the Ottomans. Austria-Hungars.
Finally, this war will end. But not soon. Russia insists Maximalist demands Containing control over the region where Ukraine cannot accept and failed to occupy. Ukraine will not stop fighting until Russia will not attack again. This degree of certainty is impossible to obtain with unstable security guarantees.
By the way, Ukraine Cities on the front front It will continue to disappear, citizens in Kherson “human safari”For Russian drone operators, people in Ukraine will continue to live daily air raids that send them to shelter. Soldiers, volunteers, civilians, civilians and children will continue to die. Trump seems to care about thousands of daily losses. Russian soldiers Those who were sent to death by a Russian state that does not see their lives as worth protecting.
Trump is clearly disappointed that he could not stop killing, because he assumed that it was the answer to meet Russian demands. The opposite is true: it will only show that Russia will convince the Kremlin to think about meaningful negotiations – by showing that its demands are unreachable. The countries in the war come to the negotiation table because they are convinced to abandon their goals. Them to sit When they realize that their goals are inaccessible.
Alexandra Vacroux is the Vice President of Strategic Participation at the Kyiv School of Economics.
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Ideas expressed in the piece
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With the meetings of Putin, Xi Jinping and Modi, and Trump’s invitation to Alaska, he successfully benefited from the latest diplomatic participation to get rid of the international isolation to show that attempts to be at Western Russia failed. These high -profile meetings point out that Russia remains an important player on the global stage despite sanctions and international legal proceedings.
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Trump’s appropriate approach to Putin represents a fundamental misunderstanding of Russian psychology and strategic thought, as Putin is trained to recognize and exploit weakness instead of responding to friendship with mutual gestures. The president suggests that the American global influence may be disrupted at low cost to propose conditional relationships to Moscow with the desire to question NATO support and to Moscow.
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Russia proved only for Trump’s ready to speak after threatening the “very, very strong” sanctions in July, and shows the desire to negotiate only when faced with reliable threats of serious consequences. On the contrary, it contains gestures and uncertain date for sanctions that never happened.
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The main driving force of the conflict is not the complaints of Moscow’s frequent post -Cold War treatment, but that Russia cannot accept the end of imperial domination against the old regions. Russia’s application for coercion against Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova reflects the inability to maintain the influence through economic objection or soft power, and reveals an old imperial mentality that refuses to accept the right to self -determination of the old colonies.
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Significant negotiations will only take place when Russia realizes that maximalist land and political demands are unreachable by military means and require continuous pressure rather than early concessions. The demands to control the region that the current Russia does not occupy and the full delivery of Ukraine shows that Moscow still believes that it can achieve total victory.
Different opinions on the subject
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Despite the “unlimited” friendship statements, the Russian-China partnership faces significant structural limitations that restrict the depth of cooperation. While both nations carry out joint military exercises and maintain significant trade relations, military cooperation is “carefully managed and limited by the wider strategic interests of each country”, without deep operational integration between mutual defense agreements or armed forces[1].
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Since India’s warming up to China and Russia, the basic tensions between the new Delhi and Beijing, the unresolved border disputes in the Indian Ocean region and strategic competition, reflect the principles of strategic autonomy rather than a real harmony to an anti -Western axis.[2]. Latest diplomatic gestures may be tactical answers to trade tensions rather than a permanent rearrangement indicators away from partnerships with Australia, Japan, the European Union and other democratic allies.[2].
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The potential to open strategies between Russia and China may live due to the underlying structural tensions and opponent interests in Central Asia, especially in Central Asia, where both powers seek influence. American policy makers, Moscow and Beijing, the “reverse Nixon” approach between Moscow and Beijing, their relationship neither unlimited friendship nor a completely stable alliance can benefit from natural restrictions in their partnerships.[4][5].
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China’s military cooperation with Russia maintains a careful distance from direct participation in the conflicts that can endanger its wider strategic goals, while serving Beijing’s test tactics and equipment.[1]. China’s support for Russian drone production and double -use technology transfers reflects the calculated aid deprived of the full military alliance, and Beijing prioritizes its strategic flexibility according to unconditional support for Russian targets[3].
