Contributor: No military strategy can stop Mexico’s cartels
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on August 13 26 NARGOTRFICKERS pulled to planes They will be convicted for the United States, where they will be prosecuted for drugs and violence crimes. Someone wanted About twenty years ago, the murder of the Deputy Sheriff of the Los Angeles district. This was not the first prisoner transfer from Mexico to the United States. Sheinbaum in February More than 29 cartel figures US Department of Justice.
All this comes at a time when the Mexican security forces accelerate the national against narcotic against the country. According to the Public Security Secretary of Mexico, murders Fell more than 25 % During the first 10 months of Sheinbaum; More than 1,200 drug laboratories have been removed.
If the Trump administration was affected by progress, the authorities did not show it. In fact, Washington is joining the US army to help the cartel violence problem on the side. President Trump signed a directive Ordering the Ministry of Defense to start using force Washington’s previously against Latin American drug cartels It was determined as foreign terrorist organizations. Six of these cartels are in Mexico. As if the point underlined, the pentagon 4,000 sailors and sailors ordered Latin America and Caribbean waters, navy resuce, reconnaissance planes and a nuclear -energy missile cruiser.
None of this is exactly a surprise. As a result, Trump flirted with the bombing cartel in Mexico in his first period. Senior advisors from Vice President JD Vance to the defense secretary Pete Hegseth increased the likelihood of using US military force to reduce the power of cartels. And Central Intelligence Agency, in cooperation with the Mexican government, Increased surveillance flights To better map the land on the Cartel judge zone.
However, no mistake: withdrawing the US military power in Mexico would be as effective as putting a band assistance on an empty wound.
We can say this with a high degree of safely, because the military force has been deployed against cartels for years, more violence, death and the United States has no noticeable effect except for the continuation of drug trafficking. Since the beginning of the 19th century, the following Mexican governments have purchased the idea that the cartels will either fold the shop with the right amount of military pressure, negotiate with the state or collapse under their own weight.
In 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared a full -scale war against the Narcotraphic Organizations, which were completed by deploying tens of thousands of Mexican troops to the country’s most violent states and more loose participation rules. Calderón’s successor, Enrique Peña Nieto, implemented the same strategy by emphasizing the leadership structure of cartels. Even the Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who campaign in the “not bullets, but hugs” approach, began to rely on the Mexican army in the second years of his presidency.
The result was the opposite of what Mexico hoped to succeed. Although there are some high profile narcotrafts caughtThe cartels increased violence against the state as a whole and made it more ruthless. Politicians, police officers, soldiers and senior government officials were targeted by Carteller and the civil massacre is now norm. Last year, Mexico experienced the most deadly election campaign in history, With about 200 politiciansCandidates and public officials pioneered the June elections.
The so -called “Kingpin strategy ılan, which focused on neutralizing cartel leadership, broke the Cartel view of Mexico and made it even more difficult for the state to include the problem. My colleague Chris McCallion and I wrote like I wrote In a new articleHigh -level cartel figures tend to cause intense internal competition between the targeted group and the reserves fighting for power among themselves. Smaller groups connected to larger cartels can use the lack of authority on the top to go to their own way. As a result, more people died; The Mexican regions, which were previously insulated from cartels, are now on the façade. And states like Sinaloa at the central base of drug trade I saw an upgraded increase in the murders. In 2006, when Calderón declared war on cartels, Mexico achieved approximately 10,000 murders; Today, the number There is more than three floors.
If the Trump administration has green light military operations, it is unlikely that the US completely imitates the heavy strategy of the Mexican government. US troops will not patrol in Mexico soon. It is more likely that the United States will adhere to the air force; Indeed, US military officials I already discussed the option.
However, air strikes will not be more effective in disrupting cartels or reducing the flow of drugs to the United States than land operations. Bombs can destroy laboratories and kill cartel members, but they are likely to change the profit motives of these criminal organizations. Drug work is simply big. Cartels climb billions of dollars from trade every year. Particularly in fentanil, the rate of return is very large; According to the 2023 indictmentIn pioneering chemicals, hundreds of dollars can make a profit of 200 to 800 times larger. It is very difficult to believe that the Sinaloa cartel, the new Jalisco Generation Cartel or another crime group will leave all this, especially when competitors wait to increase their market share on the wings.
There is no magic bullet to stop drug trade. Washington has been on the drug war for decades and the decision is quite clear: drugs won.
This does not mean that the US should complain. For example, the drug administration must have been sufficiently caused by Washington’s budget wars. Border control officers need more technology to detect drug shipments. Washington and Mexico City must strengthen the cooperation of bilateral intelligence gathered in the first 10 months of Sheinbaum’s era. And although sanctions are not a panacea, some Americans can prevent them from working with cartels.
But bombing Mexico does nothing but endanger the relationship with Mexico. Trump management must include the problem.
Daniel R. Depetris is a man in Defense Priorities.
