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Public and politicians left in dark about true impact of migration on Britain because data is full of holes, report finds

Data on immigration and crime is “riddled with gaps” and leaves the public and politicians in the dark about the true impact of immigration on the UK, an expert report has warned.

New research published by the influential Migration Observatory at Oxford University said the government did not know how many people were in the country without permission and had insufficient information about what happens to asylum seekers before or after they first apply.

There is also little data on the number of immigration cases affected by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which would deprive the public debate of vital information, academics have warned.

Labor has vowed to try to change the way the ECHR is interpreted by UK judges to prevent asylum seekers from exercising their right to family life to avoid deportation. Home Office officials claimed the ECHR “allows large numbers of people to remain in the UK against the will of the public”.

However, Migration Observatory Director Dr. Madeleine Sumption said the available data could not give the public a clear picture of when the ECHR was used in such cases.

He added: “This makes it difficult for the public or policymakers to make an informed choice about a major decision that will have long-term implications for the UK.”

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp accused Labor of “withholding data the public needs to understand what is happening at our borders”.

A UK Border Force ship brings migrants captured while crossing the English Channel to the port of Dover in Dover, England, on 08 October 2025

A UK Border Force ship brings migrants captured while crossing the English Channel to the port of Dover in Dover, England, on 08 October 2025 (Getty Images)

He said the government had “refused to publish key enforcement data and avoided saying how many cases were affected by human rights laws”, adding that ministers were “keeping the country in the dark because the facts will reveal how weak and inept their approach really is”.

Meanwhile, Care4Calais CEO Steve Smith warned that a good information vacuum could be manipulated, saying: “The public debate on immigration is riddled with politically motivated rhetoric and almost entirely devoid of facts. This is undoubtedly a dangerous situation that fuels hatred and supports far-right actors.”

Data gaps highlighted by the Migration Observatory included statistics on the economic outcomes of immigrants and how these change over time, a lack of information on the impact of immigration on public services, and gaps in data on immigration practices and returns.

They also noted that there was no official data on the nationality or immigration status of people arrested as suspects, tried in criminal cases, or convicted of crimes. The research paper published on Friday also stated that there is little data on immigrants being victims of crime.

Last year the Conservative home secretary, James Cleverly, was accused of appearing to have “lost thousands” after officials admitted 4,000 asylum seekers had lost contact with the Home Office. According to reports, approximately 85 percent of the 5,000 people identified for deportation to Rwanda were ‘disappeared’.

Ministers admitted last year that around 6,000 asylum seekers whose claims were withdrawn also went missing.

Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood announces plans to overhaul the asylum system, including making refugee status temporary

Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood announces plans to overhaul the asylum system, including making refugee status temporary (P.A.)

Migration Observatory’s senior researcher Dr. Peter Walsh said: “These evidence gaps are particularly challenging when trying to track asylum seekers through the immigration system: official data cannot tell us much about what happens to asylum seekers who are rejected but not returned, or what type and order some people apply for when they are told they must leave the UK.

“These are important questions, especially at a time when the government is planning to reform the immigration and asylum appeals system.”

Mr Smith, of Care4Calais, added: “It seems less transparent under Labor than it did under the Conservative Party.” Mr Smith pointed out that the backsliding on Freedom of Information Rights over the release of data and “mimicking anti-immigration rhetoric” had lowered the standard of debate.

“People need to be worried about this problem. Today the loophole is being used to attack refugees, but tomorrow it can be used to attack everyone’s rights,” he added.

A Home Office spokesman said: “These findings are unacceptable but are a product of this government’s legacy of an out-of-control immigration system.

“We are currently pursuing major reform to restore order and control at our border and ensure our immigration system is fair for British citizens. Under this Government, net migration to the UK has fallen by two-thirds and removals of illegal immigrants have also increased by 23% to around 50,000.”

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