Texas may not net five GOP seats like they planned
Republicans’ plans to take five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed certain. Not anymore.
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are weakening, especially among Latinosand Democrats’ strong performance in this year’s special elections changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP has drawn on its new map (Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago) looks too small.
Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results by at least 13 points in five U.S. House districts in special elections this year. Overperformance at that level next year would result in three of five new seats in Texas flipping to the Democratic Party, but the performance is unlikely to be repeated in every district across the country, and recent polls show Democrats now have a more modest national advantage.
“I can feel it on the ground,” said Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district is one of five targeted by Republicans. “I really predict that we will take back the majority next cycle and win back South Texas and places that have been traditionally Democratic areas that have been hostile to us the last few cycles, with a lot of disappointed people.”
Republicans are likely to make overall gains in the national redistricting fight with help from Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. Indiana’s Republican senators reject new maps Despite Trump’s pressure. But changing national trends could alter what both sides expect to gain when they redraw their maps.
Eduardo Leal, press secretary for Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who is pushing for redistricting in the GOP-led legislature and will run for a fourth term next year, said the “vast majority of Texans” share Abbott’s values: “secure borders, safer communities and an economy that keeps Texas affordable.”
“We are competing for every vote because elections are won not by past results, but by a clear vision and proven experience that applies to all Texans,” Leal said in a statement. “We are confident the message will continue to resonate with Latino voters statewide.”
People hand out sample ballots as voters arrive at a polling site in La Rosita, Texas, on November 5, 2024. -Eric Gay/AP
GOP’s bet on Latinos less clear-cut
Embers Improved the situation for Republicans Latino voters won by nearly 46% in 2024. 2024 exit pollsThe rate increased from 32% in 2020. Texas’ new maps were intended to build on Trump’s strong performance in the state, where he won by 14 points. Notably, Trump won every county in the Latino Rio Grande Valley, long a Democratic stronghold.
Four of the five Democratic seats the state GOP is targeting are majority Latino, according to the new maps; The 28th Congressional District is long represented by Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar and is over 90% Latino.
However Trump’s standing among Latinos has fallen dramatically Nationally, he has surpassed his overall decline in approval since the start of his second term. In three statewide races this November — the Democratic-backed vote in California and the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia — Democrats made the biggest gains in counties with higher shares of Latinos, even outpacing Joe Biden’s 2020 margin.
And in Miami, A candidate supported by Democrats won the mayoral election Earlier this month, the nearly 30-year Republican-aligned grip on the nonpartisan seat was broken.
Trump’s approval rating among Latinos in Texas dropped from 44% in February to 32% in October. University of Texas/Texas Policy Project survey. 2025 UH-TSU Texas Trend Survey We found that Latinos in Texas expressed regret about their votes in 2024 at higher rates than Texas voters overall. Texas Latinos supported Democrat Kamala Harris by an 11-point margin when asked how they would vote if they could vote again in the 2024 presidential election; That’s a 19-point margin from the 8-point margin in which the same group said they support Trump in 2024.
Democratic strategist and founder of Solidarity Strategies, Chuck Rocha, told CNN he thinks Latinos could swing back to Democrats by a five to 20 point margin next year.
“I think they will all come back,” Rocha said. “Are they just going back to the norms that existed before Trump?”
Gonzalez told CNN he’s seen this discontent among his own voters over the past year. More than three-quarters of its new district is Latino.
Gonzalez emphasized that affordability is the most important issue in his district, with a labor shortage and the increased presence of immigration officers.
“I don’t think Democrats, especially Latinos who voted for Trump, expected this to happen,” Gonzalez said later. “And now it’s gotten even more complicated, that’s compounded with a lot of the other problems that we’ve been talking about, economic problems and inflation, and people, the American people, continue to struggle.”
A big swing among Texas Latinos could also bring the GOP-held 15th Congressional District into play. The 15th District, currently held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, voted comfortably for Trump in 2024 (he won by 18 points, below the 2026 line), but his margin was much more modest in 2020 (2 points). Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke won the district by 11 points in the 2018 U.S. Senate race. According to the new map, De La Cruz’s electoral margins remain virtually unchanged.
Patrick Ruffini, a pollster and co-founder of the Republican firm Echelon Insights, argued before last year’s presidential election that Trump could lead a realignment that would bring many Latinos into the GOP coalition focused on working-class issues.
“These are the most important voters to develop because they are the fastest,” Ruffini told CNN about the Latino vote. “Without them … it’s very difficult for Democrats to achieve long-term success in the presidential election. I think that should definitely be more of a focus for the administration and for Republicans going into the midterm elections.”
Ruffini said South Texas is home to a more conservative population that is intimately familiar with the border. But Rocha believes that even a small change in the voting habits of rural Latinos could turn the districts into rifts.
The border wall is seen near a community along the Rio Grande in Mission, Texas, on August 9. -Tom Brenner, The Washington Post/Getty Images/File
The broader election landscape favored Democrats this year
Democrats had strong performances in five special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives this year; They outperformed the 2024 presidential margin by at least 13 points in every race and recorded a 17-point improvement overall.
Special elections are typically low-turnout events, and usually only the most partisan, high-turnout voters participate. But turnout in early December special elections in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district was about the same as the 2022 midterm elections. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn lost the race by 9 points, reducing Trump’s 22-point lead in the district by 13 points.
According to CNN’s latest poll, registered voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates in House districts by a 5-point margin (that’s a nearly 7-point improvement from 2024). Given mounting evidence, Democratic candidates may face a larger margin among voters. Democratic advantage in voter motivation.
“Affordability is the most important and important issue right now. I think that’s the main concern and the core component of this issue,” Ruffini told CNN. “I don’t think Donald Trump needs to convince people that he feels their pain, but I think he needs to make the case that Democrats are too weak to solve this problem.”
This story has been updated to add a statement from Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s office.
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