How Strait of Hormuz reopening could unfold after Iran deal
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could rise to almost 50% of pre-war levels within a month if the US-Iran deal is implemented without major disruptions, analysts at trade data firm Kpler said on Monday.
Washington and Tehran are expected to sign an agreement in Switzerland on Friday that will open Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade of Iran.
The number of ships passing through Hormuz could rise to 40 per day, compared to 100 per day before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Kpler analysts said in a research note. Before Iran began attacking tankers in early March, about 20% of global oil supply was passing through the strait.
Analysts said ships stuck in the Persian Gulf and fully loaded with cargo would first pass through Hormuz. It was stated that there are an estimated 118 tankers in the Gulf that can leave the region within 15 days.
Analysts said the stranding of ships leaving the area was a one-off incident and should not be interpreted as a permanent increase in traffic. The big question is how many ships will enter the Gulf once the backlog is cleared.
Kpler chief cargo analyst Matt Wright said a large number of ships were waiting for the opening of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. In the first 30 days of the U.S.-Iran deal, the number of tankers entering the Persian Gulf could rise to 12 per day, or about 50% of pre-war levels, Wright said.
More cautious shippers will wait and watch to see how the first passes go, Wright said. The analyst said that if the ships are not attacked and there are no mines, they will consider re-entering the Gulf. Once ships start sailing, insurance rates will start to drop, he added.
oil tanker company Frontline CEO Lars Barstad told CNBC that he believes “ships will start moving very quickly once the agreement is signed.” Frontline has 80 ships worldwide and five tankers stuck in the Gulf.
But there are risks that could jeopardize the reopening of Hormuz. The US and Iran appear to have different interpretations of what the agreement includes.
Iranian state media said ships could pass through Hormuz without paying tolls for 60 days. According to the state news agency Tasnim, Iran and Oman will rule the strait after this period.
But Vice President J.D. Vance told CNBC on Monday that the United States expects Hormuz to remain free in the long term.
It’s unclear how big a threat the mines pose to ships passing through Hormuz. President Donald Trump has downplayed the issue, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress earlier this month that Iran has mined large parts of the strait.
Global shipping trade group Bimco warned on Monday that “the mine threat in the region remains concerning”. Ships have been warned that the security situation remains high risk.
“We believe that the safety situation for the maritime industry remains volatile due to the lack of detail and overly optimistic assurances in the past, and that it is still too risky for ships to begin transits at this point,” Bimco safety and security chief Jakob Larsen said.
