AI is impacting the labor market, young tech workers: Goldman economist

Changes in the American labor market that emerged with the arrival of a productive AI Goldman Sachs economist.

Most companies did not use artificial intelligence in production cases, ie the general labor market has not yet been significantly affected by AI. Joseph BriggsThe Senior Global Economist of Goldman Research Department is at a Podcast section It was shared with CNBC first.

However, in the technology sector, there are already signs of withdrawal of recruitment and hitting young employees who are more difficult there.

“If you look at the employment trends of the technology sector, they have been growing as a share of general employment in the last 20 years for the last 20 years.” He said. airborne Tuesday. “In the last three years, we have seen a withdrawal that has underlined the trend in technology recruitment.”

Since November 2022, Openai’s Chatgpt has increased the rise of the world’s most valuable company, NvidiaAnd he forced all industries to struggle with their effects. Productive AI models are quickly skilled in addressing many routine tasks, and some experts say they are already equal with human software engineers.

Although this will make automation companies more productive and enriching shareholders, he expressed his concerns that the areas of the labor market may be affected in the coming years.

Technology managers have recently become more sincere about AI’s impact on employees. Companies including Alphabet and Microsoft said that AI has roughly produced 30 % The code in some projects and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff in question In June, he deals with 50% of his work in AI.

According to Briggs, young technology employees, which are the easiest to automate their jobs, are the first concrete displacement symptoms.

Authority, 20 to 30 years of technology workers between the unemployment rates since the beginning of this year has increased by 3 percent, he said. Briggs recently wrote a report titled “Measurement of Risks of Working from Work in Artificial Intelligence” indicating the labor market data from IPUMS and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

“This is a much greater increase in the technology sector than we see. [and] For other young workers, it is a greater increase than we see. ”

The approach of technical CEOs was to continue to hire young employees when they began to distribute AI. George LeeGoldman Sachs Global Institute for a former technology banker.

“How can I start to facilitate my business so that I can be more flexible and more adaptable … Still without harming our competitiveness?” He said in Lee Podcast section. “During this time, young employees are a little injured.”

According to Briggs, approximately 6% to 7% of all workers may lose their jobs due to automation from AI in the basic scenario.

Briggs said that the transition for both workers and the US economy would be more painful if the adoption between companies is roughly faster than ten years of adoption.

He said it could be due to either technological progress or economic slowdown that encourages companies to reduce costs.

If AI researchers obtain agi or artificial general intelligence, it is equal to the ability to learn and adapt the domain names of a person, and that the impact on workers would be deeper.

“Our analysis does not affect AGI’s potential.” He said. “It is hard to start thinking about the impact on the labor market, but I think it probably and of course more for a more destructive effect in that world.”