Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifying, forecast to become a rare Category 5

While the U.S. National Hurricane Center warned it would strengthen into a rare Category 5 hurricane on Monday afternoon, by Saturday evening Melissa had strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph.

The hurricane’s center is located 130 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and the storm is moving at just 3 miles per hour.

“Needless to say,” the NHC said in its warning on Saturday afternoon, “the dangers of devastating rainfall, wind and storm surge are very serious for Jamaica and preparations must be completed expeditiously in the area currently under a Hurricane Warning.”

Heavy rains are affecting parts of Haiti and will have a life-threatening, potentially catastrophic impact starting in Jamaica later Saturday and lasting for several days.

Jamaica appears to be the epicenter of the worst of Melissa’s triple threat of extreme rainfall flooding, wind damage and storm surge. Melissa could arrive in Jamaica late Monday or early Tuesday. Haiti also continues to face intense threats of devastating floods and landslides from Melissa.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, where strong winds are expected to begin tonight. Southern Haiti is under hurricane watch.

Melissa has been moving at a snail’s pace for days and won’t be picking up speed anytime soon as she moves generally westward by Sunday night.

This slow movement has already caused problems. Bands of heavy rain inundated Haiti and the Dominican Republic for much of the week, causing flash floods and landslides. The Haiti Civil Protection Agency said at least three deaths were reported in Haiti due to the storm, two of which were the result of landslides. expression. At least one person has died and more than 1,000 people have been evacuated or displaced in the Dominican Republic, officials said Friday.

Melissa is expected to rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 or stronger hurricane Sunday afternoon, increasing threats of heavy rain as well as devastating wind and storm surge as it tracks near or south of Jamaica through early next week. Landfall as a Category 5 hurricane cannot be ruled out, and Melissa could be the strongest hurricane to reach Jamaica.

This explosive boost it’s happening more often While the world is warming due to fossil fuel pollution. Three of four Atlantic hurricanes this season excessively rapid concentration: Erin, Gabriella And Humberto.

Melissa’s extreme threats

Jamaica, Haiti and the Southern Dominican Republic will face the worst of the storm at least early next week. Strong winds, storm surge and flooding rains will be followed by eastern Cuba, the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Rainfall totals of 30 inches are expected from Melissa through Tuesday in parts of southwestern Haiti and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches expected. Eastern Cuba could receive up to 18 inches total.

“Major damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for long periods of time,” the hurricane center in Haiti warned in a statement on Saturday. “This is a life-threatening situation and urgent preparations must be made to protect life and property.”

Jamaica will not only have to endure Melissa’s downpour, but will also have to deal with days of high winds. The country of about 3 million will likely see hurricane-force winds on Sunday or Monday. The strongest winds will likely occur as Melissa moves near Jamaica Monday through Tuesday. Downed trees, power outages and structural damage may be common.

Authorities in the country are already preparing for the worst. To ensure more beds are open, all public hospitals have been in “emergency mode” since Thursday evening, with outpatient and elective procedures halted. Christopher TuftonJamaica’s Minister of Health and Wellness.

Jamaica’s airports will remain open for now, but Norman Manley International Airport will close after its last scheduled flight at 8pm local time (9pm ET) on Saturday evening, according to transport minister Daryl Vaz. Vaz told a press conference that the closure of Sangster International Airport would be discussed later on Saturday.

“There is no escape from the wrath of this hurricane,” Evan Thompson, chief director of the Jamaica Meteorological Service, said on Saturday. “It’ll just stand there, pouring water while barely moving, and that’s a significant challenge… as long as what’s predicted comes true.”

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged people to take the threat seriously at Friday’s press conference: “You have been given ample notice that (Melissa) is coming and that it could be disastrous, so take all precautions to protect yourself.”

Jamaicans who spoke to Reuters on Saturday acknowledged the danger of a slow-moving hurricane, comparing Melissa’s slow pace to Hurricane Beryl.

“Slow movement still causes a lot of damage, right?” said Kingston fisherman Clive Davis. “It’s different from Beryl because Beryls come fast and never stay too long. Just pass by. But now she wants to come and visit Jamaica for 3 days, why?”

“It will slow things down, but that’s the nature of the business,” Davis added. “We can’t fight against nature, can we?”

On Saturday, workers in Kingston dredged up as much trash and silt as they could from the bottom of Sandy Gully, a nearly 20km-long waterway that snakes along the city’s western flank. When Melissa passes over Jamaica, bringing months of rain, the swollen, debris-filled trough can collapse bridges and split Kingston in half.

The United States mainland is not expected to be directly threatened by Melissa. Even so, rough surf and rip currents could spread along the U.S. East Coast next week.

Why is Melissa’s prediction so alarming?

• He moves very little. When a storm comes, it rains on the same towns for days. A similar installation caused devastating floods in 2017. Hurricane HarveyMore than 4 feet of rain fell in some parts of Texas in 2019 Hurricane DorianAbout half a meter of rain fell in the Bahamas and more than half a meter in some parts of South Carolina.

• Mountains increase the risk of floods. The steep terrain of Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic will force the air upward, drawing more moisture from the storm like wringing out a wet sponge, turning tropical moisture into showers that rush downhill. Mudslides are almost guaranteed in this scenario. when did this happen Hurricane Helene Last year, western North Carolina was devastated.

• The warmth in the Caribbean Sea goes deep. The exceptionally warm water of the Caribbean extends far below the surface, preventing the usual “mixing” of cold water that can weaken hurricanes. Melissa is expected to feast on this deep reservoir of heat and raise the ceiling of her potential density.

Hurricane Beryl It was the last storm to heavily impact Jamaica in July 2024. It did not make landfall, but still hit the island with torrential rain and strong winds as it passed south as a Category 4.

As this difficult forecast becomes clearer, all signs point to Jamaica being ground zero for what could become one of the most destructive hurricanes of the season.

CNN Meteorologists Briana Waxman, Mary Gilbert and reporters Billy Stockwell and Max Saltman contributed to this report.

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