Deep inside economy, more sticker prices start to go up due to tariffs

Prices are higher on the surface of the US economy. The government’s latest inflation data on Friday increased greater than the estimates. On Thursday, Nike said that the tariffs and price increases were not yet implemented.

Within the US economy, there are fewer products in general due to the trade war in the distribution networks that manage inventory, but there is more goods that the sticker prices increase.

“Now we see that more than one customer has increased pricing,” Ryan Martin, the President of distribution and fulfillment for logistics, said. He said.

While the price tags were placed in the products in the manufacturer, Martin said last month that the company “Millions of Products for many customers”, products ranging from consumer products in the warehouse to the products and stores prepared for instant transportation, he said.

Depending on the product, price increases ranged from 8-15%.

Bu This is an additional inflation, Mart Martin said. E-commerce is also happening, he said, price change is not on the product, but online.

A new survey from shoe distributors and American retailers shows that 55% of the participants expect average retail prices to increase between 6-10% in 2025.

Martin said that this amount was re -ticket during the pandemum and that it was much higher at that time.

“Everything was becoming more expensive then, transportation, labor and product quantities.” He said. “We have seen increases in all products, including food and beverage,” he said. “The ticket was between 30%and 40%again.”

Not just higher prices, but less inventory

With the existing concerns about trade uncertainty and consumer softness, retailers and production customers manage the inventory by narrowing the number of SKK and importing less SKU. Economic Analysis Bureau, Gross Domestic Product decreased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.

“The general inventory footprint is smaller, Mart Martin said. “You’re looking at the three -month inventory at hand against six months.”

Investment chain data from the warehouse sector and an increasing number of empty shipping containers in ports indicate a lighter peak season (the accumulation of inventory writing for return to school and holiday shopping periods).

According to the index of logistics managers, warehouse inventory levels decreased to 6% of the month.

Colorado State University Supply Chain Management Associate Professor Zachary Rogers, according to the first half of June to the moon to the moon to the moon to compare the readings, shows that an increase in the beginning of June is temporary. “We have not yet seen great changes in transportation because how long to move in systems.” He said. “The storage capacity went to a slight expansion without a slight contraction.”

There is no data for the entire June, but Rogers said it was not likely to change the results in a significant change. “We are far enough to know where they will be,” he said.

Rogers announced that the light expansion seen at the beginning of the month is consistent with the containers processed in the ports. US importers are hesitant to highlight full ocean load orders due to tariffs. The 50% tariff on Chinese goods is still very high for many retailers, even after a pause on higher tariffs. President Donald Trump threatened Chinese goods.

West Coast ports now see a small lump in containers that start to come for holidays. However, on the basis of Los Angeles Optimizer Port, which follows the ocean trade for Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, July imports will be lower than July 2024.

“This is remarkable because the numbers moved to August are remarkable,” this is the time we expect to see the rise. ” He said.

The situation on the east coast is different.

New York and New Jersey Port, the largest harbor on the East Coast, released May Monthly Container data on Thursday, and showed that the harbor operates 774,698 twenty -meter equivalent units or TEU.

“The tariffs will not affect us as close to the west coast, because we do not trust China as much as our colleagues,” New York and New Jersey Director Bethann Rooney said. He said. “We have seen an increase in volumes from Europe, Southeast Asia, India and Vietnam. I do not expect a significant increase in July, but we will see strong skin.”

However, Rooney added that the shift was relatively small until the re -guidance of supply chains in Europe and Southeast Asia. “We see a change of 1% from year to year,” he said. “Cumulatively creates an effect. But we certainly do not see a tremendous change in guidance, but many useful cargo owners [U.S. companies] They change their resources or diversify their supply. “

Empty shipping containers sit on the ports for a longer time

Another leading indicator of future load orders is the movement of ejaculation. Empty container trade is required to move the export flow. CNBC analysis of empty containers shows that there is no rush to ejaculation in a way that will return to return to Los Angeles and Long Beach.

During the pandemi, gaps were priority to return to Asia, so that they could be refilled and exported to the USA.

“The fact that many empty containers still live in ports show that importers do not expect our normal August-September summit season.” He said.

Truck and storage, thanks to the wave of goods coming to ports, will see some activities at the wholesale/distribution level for the third quarter and will finally move to the retailers in September and October. But Rogers said, “At this point, it is unlikely that we will see a normal peak season.”

“Even now at the inventory levels, we already have a ton of inventory, and I would expect that those who are still in place to be lower than we expected at the beginning of the year, especially those related to manufacturing.” He said.

Another warning sign is a dramatic decrease in the average ocean load ratio in the trans-pacific route from the Far East to the US west coast since an earlier increase in June. According to Xeneta’s shipping analyst Peter Sand, average spot rates have dropped from the Far East to the US West coast since June 1. “The transpacific to the Western coast of the United States is the key battlefield for carriers when it comes to Chinese exports, so the spot ratios fell harder and faster because they prioritize the capacity to restore the capacity immediately after the lowering of 145%.” He said.

Sand said that it is only a matter of time to do the same thing on the eastern coast of the transporters, and that the spot rates began to fall sharply.

This withdrawal in orders is closely monitored by economists. Oxford Economics recently wrote that on the import side, consumer goods continued to fall with a decrease of $ 4.3 billion after a decrease of $ 33 billion in April. “While this is partially balanced with a gain in cars, other categories have not changed mostly. We hope that the importation rates will be lower throughout the year as the effective tariff rates increase and the economy slows down.”

“The indecision is the best decision with the transporters because of the whole tariff conversation right now.” He said. “Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or understands the cost structure. In this case it is better to have lean inventories.”

Correction: According to the Logistics Managers Index, the warehouse inventory levels decreased by 6% of the month. A previous version of this article incorrectly stated the name of the directory.