Warning England could face widespread drought in 2026 without wet winter
The Environment Agency has warned that Britain will face widespread drought next year without a wet winter.
Yorkshire and the Midlands are facing drought following a dry spring and summer and a series of heatwaves, while parts of the country are still under “exceptionally dry conditions”. The North West is currently recovering.
The end of the drought is declared only when water levels are fully restored. The UK has seen below-average rainfall in eight out of ten months this year; Only January and September recorded above-average rainfall.
The country experienced its driest spring in 132 years and the hottest summer in history, receiving only 83 percent of average rainfall from January to October.
The Environment Agency said the situation remained “precarious” despite recent rainfall. If the winter is drier than usual, much or all of the country will be in drought by next spring, bringing risks such as tornado bans, impacts on crops and wildlife, and wildfires as the summer progresses.
These dry conditions also increase the risk of flash floods when it rains; because arid lands struggle to absorb heavy downpours, causing water to run off.
The warning comes as the Met Office predicts heavy rain through Saturday, but says there is a higher than normal chance of drought for the three months from November to January, which could cause drought conditions to worsen further.
Environment Agency water manager Helen Wakeham said: “If we don’t get consistent rainfall over the winter there will be drought next year.
“The severity of the drought will depend on both the weather and the actions we take over the winter following this very dry year.
“The public have been wonderful this summer to use a little less water and comply with restrictions in some parts of the country.
“I urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use, even if it’s raining outside this winter. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
The Environment Agency is urging water companies to continue communicating with their customers to help them use less water and continue their efforts to reduce leakage.
Farmers should consider adjusting cropping patterns to include more drought-tolerant crops or varieties that need less irrigation, refilling reservoirs as quickly as possible, and working with neighbors to share water and water rights, it said.
The agency outlined three scenarios for winter rainfall (when water supplies refill before the summer months) and what they would mean for the public, farmers and the environment.
If England receives an average amount of rainfall over the winter, all parts of the country will be in normal or improving conditions by March 2026, except for parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire that will still remain in long-term dry conditions.
If this happens, public water supplies will fully recover, the canal network will return to full strength, but there may be some lasting effects on nature, including a poor breeding season for amphibians.
But if the country receives only 80% of the average rainfall expected over the winter, all regions except Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire, and Cumbria and Lancashire will be in drought or prolonged dry weather conditions by March 2026.
In an even drier scenario, where the UK receives only 60% of average rainfall for the winter, all parts of the country would face drought by spring 2026 due to cyclone bans, reduced water used to irrigate crops, impacts on sports facilities and the potential for “permanent” environmental damage.
Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “Although it is not possible to predict the weather for the next three months with certainty, the chances of a dry spell are higher than usual.
“A more average three-month period for rain is still the most likely scenario.
“It is important to note that rainfall patterns across the UK can be variable, so some will see more rainfall while others will see less rainfall, possibly providing limited relief from long-standing dry conditions.”
Water minister Emma Hardy said the Government would continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain water supplies to communities across the country.
“Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and floods in the coming years.
“That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, including building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage,” he said.
