Neck and neck by-election could swing on postal votes
The outcome of a neck-and-neck byelection in Queensland could depend on postal voting.
By late Saturday evening, with almost 80 per cent of votes counted in the race for Stafford, Brisbane’s inner north, Labor was leading the LNP by 768 votes, according to the ABC’s chief analyst Casey Briggs.
“Labour is likely to keep Stafford,” he said.
“There is a 4.1 per cent swing against Labor and postal votes still need to be counted,” he said.
“But for the LNP to win here, postal votes would need to be very strongly in its favour. That’s unlikely to happen.”
Neither party was able to make a declaration, and because the preferences are so important, more than one count will likely be required to confirm the outcome.
Mr Briggs said postal ballots were the biggest remaining variable as it was unclear exactly how many of them would be returned and counted.
As the polls closed at 18:00, more than 14,000 people voted that day.
Approximately 42 percent of voters chose to vote early, including 13,530 in person and 3,860 by mail.
Election Commissioner Pat Vidgen said staff is counting first choices from ballots received on election day, early voting, telephone voting and mail-in ballots returned so far.
“Voting ended at 6pm, but it may still take a few days for the results to be determined,” he said.
“We will announce the successful candidates only when the result is finalized.”
Voters in the Stafford constituency were called to the polls on Saturday following the sudden death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan on April 9.
Mr Sullivan, who had 6.83 per cent of the vote against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from the Labor Party in May 2025 due to legal and medical concerns.
The seat has been held by Labor for most of its history, with Mr Sullivan’s father Terry serving as a member from 2001 to 2006.
Labour’s Luke Richmond still conceptually holds the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 5.3 per cent.
But recent polls have suggested the LNP could be on course for an unexpected and historic victory.
Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams predicted Fiona Hammond would win the LNP seat.
As a by-election move towards an incumbent government is rare, even a reduction in Labour’s margin would technically be a loss for Labor and former prime minister Steven Miles.
Professor Williams said if the seat was lost it would likely be fatal to his leadership.
One Nation did not put forward any candidates in the voting.
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