Outrageous disrespect: Spurs shouldn’t be big underdogs against Thunder in Game 2

The series-opening instant classic of the 2026 Western Conference Finals is a tough act to follow. However, San Antonio (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will try it in Game 2 on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m.

Thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s game of the century, San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City 122-115 in double overtime in Game 1. Wembanyama set game highs in points (41), rebounds (24) and blocks (3) and hit an absurd 27-foot 3-pointer to double the overtime.

Wemby and the Spurs did an outstanding job defending Thunder big man Chet Holmgren and running back two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday. While Holmgren maintained 8 points on 28.6% shooting (2-for-7), SGA scored 24 points on 30.4% shooting (7-for-23).

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Despite trailing 81% of Game 1, the Thunder are still -7/-7.5 favorites in Game 2. find the truth The game of the big favorite. There is a lucrative NBA postseason system where big favorites are in Game 2 after losing the series opener.

But I’m drowning out that noise because I’m going to bet on whether Wembanyama’s teams will be +4 or more underdogs for the next 10 years or more.

Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 (-115)

Part of the reason the heavy favorites came back and won Game 2 is because the underdog stole the series opener due to their unsustainable performance. But that’s not the case for San Antonio.

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The Spurs won on three of the “four factors” in Game 1: effective shooting rate combining 2- and 3-point shooting, rebounding and the free-throw battle.

San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama blocked Oklahoma City Thunder winger Jalen Williams in double overtime in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs conference final series. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)

San Antonio’s dominance in rebounding and free throw shooting is particularly troubling for OKC. The Spurs grabbed 21 more rebounds in Game 1 and got to the foul line 10 more times.

People might say it’s due to the regression, but that’s not necessarily the case. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive rebounds and FT/FGA ratio during the regular season. With Wemby There the Spurs will always rebound and won’t have to gamble on defense.

Also, if there was one outstanding performance in Game 1, it was Thunder wing Alex Caruso’s 31 points on 11-of-19 shooting. Ultimately, the Spurs will let him shoot the three because any Caruso shot is good defensive exposure for them.

San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama lost to Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren in Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)

Moreover, as a team, the Thunder ranked only 13th in offensive FT/FGA rate and 22nd in total rebound rate this season. Shai is a “free throw merchant” but Oklahoma City is no.

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Finally, the market expects the Thunder to make appropriate adjustments in Game 2, but their depth is overrated in this matchup. San Antonio enters the ninth seed, good enough for the playoffs, including 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson.

Prediction: Thunder 108, Spurs 104

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