Start of the race to succeed Keir Starmer: Shamed MP ‘opens door’ for Andy Burnham’s leadership challenge… if he can win bitter by-election against Nigel Farage

A disgraceful MP ​​is on the verge of resigning from parliament, which could pave the way for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir Starmer.

Former health secretary Andrew Gwynne, who was stripped of the Labor whip in February last year, is expected to make an announcement about his future soon.

There are widespread reports that he will leave the House of Commons after reaching an agreement on pensions, which would lead to a by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency.

There has long been speculation that Mr Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, would contest a by-election in the North West in a bid to replace Sir Keir.

The 56-year-old, who was MP for Leigh between 2001 and 2017 before being elected mayor, slammed the Prime Minister.

He has repeatedly refused to rule out a future bid for the Labor leadership amid claims he could be challenged following Sir Keir’s difficult first 18 months in No 10.

But Mr Burnham must first be approved as Labour’s by-election candidate by the party’s ruling National Executive Committee, which is loyal to Starmer.

And even if he is chosen as Labour’s hopeful candidate, he will still need to win a tough byelection contest against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

The mayor of Greater Manchester today insisted he was ‘uninformed’ about Mr Gwynne’s plans but did not rule out standing in a by-election.

Former health secretary Andrew Gwynne, who was stripped of the Labor whip in February last year, is expected to make an announcement about his future soon.

Mr Burnham told the Local Democracy Reporting Service: ‘This has not been confirmed to me.

‘I have had no contact with Andrew or anyone close to him regarding this matter. Of course, I’ve known him for a long time, but I don’t know as much about this as everyone else.

‘People should not rush to conclusions. ‘I am very focused on my role as Mayor of Greater Manchester.’

Senior Labor figures are said to be bracing for an announcement from Mr Gwynne, who is away from Parliament on sick leave.

It has been reported that there are talks about Mr Gwynne taking medical retirement in February, so by-elections could be held on the same day as local elections in May.

At the same time He said Mr Gwynne had reached an agreement over the MP’s pension that would allow him to retire on medical grounds.

Mr Gwynne lost his Labor whip last year after offensive messages emerged in a WhatsApp group.

He was sacked as health minister and suspended from the Labor Party, while also being investigated by the parliamentary watchdog.

Mr Burnham’s allies told The Mail on Sunday last month that he was ready to strike a deal to fight a by-election to return to the House of Commons.

This will allow the former Cabinet minister, later dubbed the ‘King in the North’, to formally challenge Sir Keir if he can muster MPs’ support.

But with Starmer loyalists dominating Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC), there is no guarantee Mr Burnham will be chosen as Labour’s candidate in the by-election or win a contest.

A Labor loyalist MP told the Daily Mail: ‘It certainly won’t get through an NEC panel.’

Labour’s latest rulebook states that directly elected mayors like Mr Burnham must ‘obtain express permission’ from party officials before being nominated as a party candidate in the Westminster contest.

There are also suggestions that the NEC may opt for an all-female shortlist of by-election candidates, as the gender balance in the parliamentary Labor Party has fallen below 50 per cent.

A Labor source said the cost of fighting the Manchester mayoral election would be another reason to stop Mr Burnham.

However, they said they would be ‘surprised’ if it was allowed to get to the point where it should have been prevented.

‘Someone needs to sit down and explain the challenges to Andy,’ the source said.

‘But when it comes to this point, I think the NEC will at least block it because of the money it would cost the party.’

Regarding the cost of the mayoral election, one MP warned: ‘The party is weak.’

Mr Burnham has refused to rule out a bid for the Labor leadership amid claims Sir Keir Starmer could be challenged, seen in Checkers today

Even if he is chosen as the Labor candidate in the by-election, Mr Burnham will still need to win a tough byelection contest against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Mr Gwynne won the Gorton and Denton constituency at the 2024 general election with a majority of 13,000 votes, ahead of second-placed Reform.

But Mr Farage’s party may now fancy its chances of winning the seat following a surge in polls and a decline in Labour’s popularity since the general election.

A Labor veteran told the Daily Mail that Mr Burnham ‘has a lot of supporters in Parliament’.

They downplayed the possibility of the NEC blocking the mayor of Greater Manchester from being shortlisted for a House of Commons seat.

‘It seems extremely weak to keep him from standing, so we don’t expect it to be a major obstacle,’ they added.

A senior Labor MP said the party’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, was ‘pressing’ for a resolution in the Gwynne case because it would benefit her Manchester ally, Mr Burnham.

‘Lucy is pushing this,’ said the MP. ‘The NEC may face a very difficult decision… Who do they prefer, Andy Burnham or Reformation?

‘Will they support Burnham or find a different candidate who won’t win?’

House of Commons sources suggested the deal being discussed would see Mr Gwynne, who is only 51, paid until retirement age, at which point he would receive a full Parliamentary pension.

According to one insider, this package could be worth around £1 million.

There will also be questions about what will happen to the long-running standard investigation into Mr Gwynne and whether he will face any sanctions if he is found to have done wrong.

In February last year Mr Gwynne said he regretted making comments that were ‘badly misjudged’ and apologized ‘for any offense I have caused’.

Messages featuring Manchester-based Labor figures in a closed WhatsApp group chat called ‘Trigger Me Timbers’ reportedly contained sexist, racist and anti-Semitic comments.

Mr Gwynne has previously denied plans to vacate his seat in Gorton and Denton any time soon.

Asked on BBC radio about Mr Gwynne resigning, paving the way for Mr Burnham in the by-election, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said on Thursday: ‘Andrew Gwynne was a member of my team in opposition and in government.

‘I am aware that you have serious health problems. And, you know, despite all the other challenges he’s been through and some of the challenges he’s been through, I wish him and his family the best of luck and I hope he’s okay. His health was a real challenge.

‘If there is actually going to be a by-election, we need to make sure we have a strong candidate, we need to fight really hard to win this by-election and we need our best candidates to come forward.

‘Who this is and whether Andy will step into the ring is something for Andy to think about and ultimately for the party members to decide. But we need strong candidates.

‘I will say this about Andy, having just seen him earlier this week, whether he’s in government at national level or running the city and region locally, he makes a huge impact and really makes a big difference. He’s someone I’m proud to work with.’

In the days before Labour’s conference in Liverpool in September, Mr Burnham claimed unhappy MPs were privately pressuring him to challenge the Prime Minister.

He later made a fresh outcry against Sir Keir’s leadership with an impassioned speech at a conference side event.

But despite leaving the door open for a future leadership bid, Mr Burnham later backtracked amid backlash over his stance.

Cabinet ministers have not hesitated to tell Mr Burnham in recent months to focus on his role as mayor of Manchester.

toHome Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in December that we all in Government and Labor have a responsibility to focus on the day-to-day business and serve the British people.

And Business Secretary Peter Kyle said in September: ‘I think he is [Mr Burnham] He’s doing an incredible job in Manchester at the moment, I think Manchester really needs him.

‘I loved working with him in Manchester. It would be a shame for Manchester to lose him.’

Speaking virtually at an Institute of Government panel discussion this week, Mr Burnham appeared to criticize the missions laid out by Sir Keir’s Government.

‘You need to go on difficult missions too, right?’ he said.

‘The mission to fix social care, the mission to end the housing crisis, the mission to end the cost of living crisis.

‘I think people buy into it when the mission is really clear, when it’s right in front of them and they understand it. “That’s an important part of it.”

But Mr Burnham added: ‘The Government have made so much progress and I applaud them for that.’