Tariff refunds unlikely to benefit consumers: CNBC CFO Council survey
Although the Supreme Court struck down much of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda — a judge later ordered the government to prepare to refund potentially billions of dollars to importers who paid the tariffs — consumers shouldn’t expect to get any money refunded.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey from CNBC’s CFO Council. While 12 of the 25 chief financial officers said their companies planned to apply for tariff refunds, none said they planned to share the money directly with customers.
Six of those surveyed said they did not plan to pass on any portion of the tariff refund they might receive, seven said they were unsure, and 12 responded “not applicable.”
Ten of the top executives said they expected it could take a year or longer to get a refund, and only three of the CFOs expected a refund this year. The other 12 CFOs said they did not plan to apply for tariff refunds.
The CFO Council survey is a sampling of opinions from chief financial officers of major organizations across various sectors of the U.S. economy. CFO Council members participated in the survey between March 23 and April 2.
Meanwhile, the legal battle over Trump’s tariffs is not over yet. On the same day the Supreme Court ruled in February that “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal, Trump announced a new “global tariff” rate of 10% for a 150-day period under a separate law, Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. He later said he would increase global tariffs to 15%.
US President Donald Trump speaks during his meeting with Chancellor Merz (CDU) at the White House. Topics include the war in Iran, the tariff dispute between the EU and the US, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and China policy.
Kay Nietfeld | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imports from foreign countries and are paid by U.S. entities importing the product. Businesses often bear some of the cost and pass the rest on to consumers through higher prices. Economists say that tariffs in this way create an overall inflationary effect on the economy.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC CFO Council survey results “are no surprise” even if companies receive refunds.
After factoring in the heavy toll on U.S. businesses, including higher costs and supply chain adjustments to reduce exposure to tariffs, Zandi may be thinking “it’s just compensation,” Zandi said, “they’re going to stick with it.” [refunds]”
He added that the Trump administration could pressure companies to pass on those savings, “but it’s going to be very difficult to do that.”
Where do tariff reduction efforts stand?
The President floated the idea of putting some of the tariff revenue directly into the hands of Americans in the form of tariff dividend checks. But any such broad-based benefit program would require legislation to be approved by Congress.
Both Democrats and Republicans tried to take advantage of this situation. Trump’s tariff agenda before the 2026 midterm elections. Although various tariff refund bills have been presented in Congress, no law has been approved yet.
Last year, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced: American Workers’ Benefits Act of 2025He offered a stimulus check funded by tariff revenues. The Senate referred the bill to the Finance Committee, where it remained.
In March this year, Senator Martin Heinrich, D.N.M., introduced another bill that would create a new tax relief for those affected by the high cost of everyday items due to the now-defunct tariff regime. Heinrich’s bill, called the Tariff Rebate for Working Families Act, would tap the $166 billion raised by tariffs to fund the new rebate.
The law in question was also referred to the Finance Commission.
Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn. Other efforts sit in House committees, including the Trump Tariff Relief Act introduced by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, and the American Consumer Tariff Relief Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas.
“The likelihood of the tariff rollback passing Congress still seems remote,” said certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate.
“A Republican-backed bill would almost acknowledge that tariffs were a policy mistake, even if sending checks was popular to begin with,” he said. “Democrats have little incentive to support such a measure before the midterm elections because tariffs and higher gas prices are largely associated with Republicans.”
