Texas floods reveal limitations of disaster forecasting under climate crisis | Texas floods 2025
The ongoing challenges of excessive air foresight during the age of climate crisis were brought back to the forefront in the midst of the disaster flashes in Texas’s “Tepe Country” region.
At the beginning of Sunday, hundreds of savior is looking for at least 12 people who are still missing due to rain outside San Antonio and Austin. Hundreds of people have been withdrawn from flood waters that have killed about 70 people so far, many of them are children in a summer camp on the banks of the Guadalupe River.
July is the highest flash flood season in the United States and is known as “flash flood Alley, çal because the Middle Texas is known as Tropical moisture and the necessary components of slow -moving storms usually come together in the rugged terrain. National Weather Service (NWS) predictions, this weekend and up to the next week may come more floods.
The scale of this latest climatic disaster became evident on Saturday, as all the neighborhoods of the drone images taken on Saturday morning showed the water flowing on the streets of the small town. Survival and heartbreak tales were found in abundance.
The first analysis of the downpour and decisions of the estimators who caused them by Guardian shows that the rainfall of this size is extremely rare and difficult to predict even for this flooding region.
More than 10 inches (25 cm) in a total of Friday’s total of rain can be expected “Typical” only once in a 500 -year -old Kerrville, for Texas – three months of rain in just a few hours. Radar data Show that the Friday rains have fallen more than 4 o’clock per hour during the summit. This rainfall density is one Similar flash flood in 1987 This was a tragedy for campers throughout Guadalupe.
Saturday’s rainfall totals actually exceeded the rainfall on Friday for a region a little north of the peak rains on Friday. Austin, about 14 inch rain fell just west of Texas – only once the expected rains About 1000 years A stable climate was given.
Despite the financing interruptions and widespread personnel problems implemented by the Trump administration, the NWS predictions at the NWS National Specialist Center responsible for excessive rainfall, both in the local San Angelo office and the NWS National Specialization Center, provided a series of watches and warnings at the flood disaster on Friday.
In his prediction office in San Angelo, he has two existing empty positions for ERA before Trump and less than the average average personnel shortage in NWS, and he did not experience any tour that disturbed some other offices in the air balloon data collection process.
Actually, Air Balloon Data Gathered from Del Rio on Thursday, he showed a record amount of moisture in the upper atmosphere in the center of Texas and contributed to the confidence that the violent flash flood was possible. Del Rio Office started publishing a series of floods later Starting in the afternoon of Thursday This is between 5 to 7 inches of rain ”.
Maryland also released a series of NWS’s weather forecast center in College Park. Mesocal rainfall debates On Thursday – Notifications of detailed progress to other air estimators that a rare event may continue. In one of the discussions, the predictions, the moisture content in the center of Texas was “99th. Climatological percentage tongue üzerinde – a clue that there is a lot of historical floods than normal.
At one last rise, the NWS office in San Angelo is a Flash flood emergency About an hour before the water quickly starts to go beyond the flood stage Nearest US Geological Research River Monitoring Indicator. A flash flood emergency is the highest flood warning available for NWs and Start the wireless emergency warning systemHe would trigger the mobile phone alarms in the area.
Published National Weather Service Duzines Additional Flash Flood Warning On Friday and Saturday, after the second wave of extremely heavy rains, the flood in the center of Texas in the early hours of the morning.
Although timely hours and warnings were given during the disaster – contrary to what local authorities said at the press conferences – the sum of the first flash floods were about half of the falling.
The existing air estimation technology may know that a particular region may occur about a day before, but it is similar to the prediction that a hurricane can be multiplied by a day before time before time before time, knowing how much and a part of a particular river on the rugged land of the drainage basin makes it much more difficult. Donald Trump’s personnel deductions have reached the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration’s Environmental Modeling Center, which aims to improve the skills of such difficult forecasts.
Although it is unclear to what extent the personnel problems in NWS have complex the difference that local authorities have an approaching flood disaster, it is a kind of complex, compound tragedy in which climate heating is done more often.
The rainfall density in Middle Texas has been prone for decades, and the rains of this week have been increased by the ruins of the tropical storm Barry, which was ashore in Northern Mexico last week. The circulation of Barry attracted a record amount of atmosphere moisture to the center of Texas from the record -breaking hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
A mixture of Barry’s circulation and climate warming, Registration High atmospheric Humidity Content In the center of Texas – in line with the trend Increased atmospheric moisture content Globally, the world can hold more water vapor while the world warms up and the air.
