Thailand votes in three-way race as risk of instability looms

By Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal

BANGKOK, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Voters turned out in large numbers on Sunday for Thailand’s general election defined by a three-way fight between conservative, progressive and populist camps; No party is expected to gain a clear majority and the specter of political instability remains.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul laid the groundwork for early elections in mid-December amid a violent border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia; analysts said this was a timed move by the conservative leader to cash in on rising nationalism.

At that point, he had been in power for less than 100 days, taking over after the ouster of prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the populist Pheu Thai party due to the Cambodian crisis.

Pheu ‌Thai, backed by billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who himself was imprisoned just days after his daughter’s ouster, is in decline but not out, polls show.

“We did everything we could,” Anutin told reporters after casting his vote in the city of Buriram, northeast of Bangkok, a stronghold of the Bhumjaithai Party. “We hope our people will trust us”

But it was the progressive People’s Party, with its message of structural change and reforms for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, that led in most opinion polls during the campaign season.

“This election is about whether Thailand will get out of the rut, whether Thailand will get out of its ongoing political instability and economic woes,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“My initial conclusion is that it won’t break out, I’m afraid.”

In the hours after the polls opened, scores of voters flocked to polling stations in Bangkok, including 44-year-old company employee Suwat Kiatsuwan.

“I don’t want the same people anymore,” he said after voting. “If we vote the way we did before, nothing will change. We weren’t going anywhere.”

Polls closed at 17:00 local time (1000 GMT) and preliminary results are expected to be announced within a few hours.

PRE-ELECTION SURVEY

Although it has taken the fight to Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and Pheu Thai, the People’s Party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority on its own; This increases the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessor.

In a poll conducted in the final week of the campaign published on Sunday, the National Institute of Development Administration predicted Bhumjaithai would be the winner with 140 to 150 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, ahead of the People’s Party 125-135.

People’s Party forerunner Move Forward won the last election in 2023 but was blocked from forming a government by the military-appointed Senate and conservative MPs, opening the door for Pheu Thai to take over.

The long-standing conflict between the powerful royalist-conservative establishment and popular democratic movements has created prolonged uncertainties punctuated by street protests, violence and military coups.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

Thai voters will also be asked to decide during the vote whether a new constitution will replace the 2017 constitution, a military-backed document that critics say concentrated power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful senate elected through an indirect electoral process with limited popular participation.

Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, with most of the changes following military coups.

If voters support the drafting of a new national constitution, the new government and MPs can start the parliamentary amendment process with the two referendums required to adopt a new constitution.

“Whether we move away from the constitution prepared by the junta or not, I believe that the party that wins the next election will have a big impact on the direction of constitutional reform,” said Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think tank.

DIFFERENT STRATEGIES

Bhumjaithai’s rise on rising nationalism unleashed by the Thai-Cambodian conflict – alongside Pheu Thai’s decline after its travails last year – has triggered a series of defections and reshaped political battlegrounds, including vote-rich agricultural belts.

Some political parties have responded by attracting well-known local figures, including those from rival factions, to their camps, aiming to capture the networks of personal loyalty that are key to winning in the hinterland.

The pro-reform People’s Party has also changed its playbook, diluting the progressive movement’s anti-establishment stance and bringing in outside talent to convince voters it has what it takes to run a government.

Former Prime Minister ‌Abhisit Vejjajiva used his personal appeal to throw himself into the mix to revive the once moribund Democratic Party; This party may emerge as a key force in post-election coalition talks.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Suen, Minh Nguyen and Napat Wesshasartar; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)