Thailand votes with three main parties vying for power

Voters in Thailand are heading to the polls for an early general election in what is being seen as a three-way race between rival visions of progressive, populist and old-fashioned patronage politics.

The struggle to win support from 53 million registered voters takes place against a backdrop of slow economic growth and rising nationalist sentiment.

While more than 50 parties participated in the polls, only three (People’s Party, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai) have the nationwide organization and popularity to achieve a winning mandate.

A simple majority of the 500 elected MPs chooses the next prime minister.

Local polls consistently predict that no party will win a majority, necessitating the formation of a coalition government.

Although the progressive People’s Party appears favored to win pluralism, its reformist policies are not shared by its leading rivals, which could freeze it out of joining forces to form a government.

The People’s Party, led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, is the successor to the Forward Movement Party, which won the most seats in Parliament in 2023 but was blocked from forming a government by conservative MPs and was later forced to disband.

The platform continues to promise sweeping reforms in the military, police and judiciary to appeal to young people and urban voters. Legal restrictions led him to put aside demands to reform a law that imposed harsh penalties for criticism of the monarchy, while placing a new emphasis on economic issues.

Softening his politics risks weakening his core support; as the last election positioned it directly as an alternative to the military-led government of the previous nine years; this time he will not be able to take advantage of this situation productively.

At the same time, Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Thailand Center for Future Policy and Geopolitics, a Bangkok-based think tank, said positions critical of the military could be a political liability as the military’s reputation has been burnished by a wave of patriotism during last year’s border clashes with Cambodia.

The Bhumjaithai Party, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is seen as the main proponent and preferred choice of the royalist-military order.

Anutin has only been prime minister since September after serving in the cabinet of former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was dismissed for ethics violations over mismanagement of relations with Cambodia. When threatened with a no-confidence vote in December, he dissolved parliament to call new elections.

Subsequent border conflicts with Cambodia allowed Anutin to recast himself as a wartime leader after his initial popularity plummeted due to floods and financial scandals. His campaign focuses on national security and economic stimulus.

Seen as the party most likely to form the next government, Bhumjaithai benefits from an electoral strategy that uses old-school patronage politics and a machine skilled at grassroots organizing in the vote-rich northeast.

The Pheu Thai Party, the latest political vehicle of billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, uses populist policies developed by its predecessor, the Thai Rak Thai party, which was ousted by a military coup from 2001 to 2006.

Parties backed by Thaksin repeatedly returned to the polls but were overturned by conservative-leaning courts and state watchdogs. He has softened his policies enough to return to power in the 2023 elections after being deemed an acceptable alternative to the more progressive Move Forward party by the previously hostile royalist-military establishment.

The conservative court system reversed this situation, however; He dismissed two prime ministers in two years and ordered Thaksin jailed on old charges. The party is currently campaigning on populist promises such as economic stimulus and cash handouts, and is nominating Thaksin’s nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat as its prime ministerial candidate.

Sunday’s vote includes a referendum asking voters whether Thailand should amend the military-drafted constitution in 2017.

The vote will not be on a proposed draft, but instead to decide whether to authorize parliament to start a formal drafting process.

While pro-democracy groups see the new regulation as a critical step towards reducing the influence of unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary, conservatives warn it could cause instability.

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