The AIADMK is on a weak footing

L.Last week, senior leader KA Sengottaiyan, who was previously with the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), joined the actor Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in Tamil Nadu, which is slated to go to polls next year.

Mr. Sengottaiyan, former Transport and School Education Minister, was expelled from the AIADMK about a month ago. He felt sidelined by party general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and resigned from his post as MLA from Gobichettipalayam constituency in Erode district before joining the fledgling TVK.

This move did not surprise many people. Mr. Sengottaiyan had only two options: either switch to the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) or join TVK. Being someone who has been schooled in anti-DMK politics for years, he will probably find the first option unacceptable. When commotion broke out in the Tamil Nadu Assembly on March 25, 1989, the then Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi alleged that Mr. Sengottaiyan hit him in the face and broke his glasses. On the same day, AIADMK chief and Leader of Opposition Jayalalithaa was also attacked. When she tried to walk out of the Assembly during the clash, a DMK Minister grabbed the hem of her sari. In such an environment, joining TVK was Mr. Sengottaiyan’s best option because Mr. Vijay had presented himself as a critic of DMK since the beginning of his political career.

While Mr. Sengottaiyan’s critics feel that the senior leader is discrediting himself by joining TVK, which has just entered the political arena, the former Minister, who has been elected to Parliament nine times since 1977, will be an asset to TVK. There is no leader in TVK who can rival Mr. Sengottaiyan’s experience in politics and election management. Mr. Sengottaiyan has been appointed chief coordinator of TVK’s senior administrative committee and organizing secretary for the four western districts, traditionally known as AIADMK strongholds. By appointing himself as the head of four districts, Mr. Vijay signaled that he, like the DMK, would make it difficult for the main opposition party in the elections.

The AIADMK’s woes appear to be continuing: It has lost some of its prominent second-tier leaders to the DMK in recent months, including former MPs A. Anwhar Raajhaa and V. Maitreyan. It has been almost eight months since the AIADMK and the BJP announced the revival of their relations, but they have failed to woo any party with a significant following on their side. If this situation continues, it will become difficult for the harvester to fight against the DMK-led front, which has managed to keep its herd together.

When the two parties announced they were renewing relations on April 10, their supporters predicted they would gain a 41% vote share. He believed that both parties would protect their allies from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to 2026. It is now clear that the AIADMK will not be able to get the support of all constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, which appeared before the voters in April-May last year. One of the main reasons for this is that Pattali Makkal Katchi, founded by S. Ramadoss in 1989, is heading towards a split. Mr Ramadoss’s year-long political dispute with his son and former Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss has deepened further. Election Commission’s Dr. Its recent decision to officially recognize Anbumani Ramadoss as the party president is likely to force the founder to chart his own path.

In the BJP, former State president K. Annamalai frequently made statements that did not sit well with either the AIADMK or Mr. Annamalai’s successor, Nainar Nagenthran, who is determined to maintain ties with the AIADMK at least until the elections are over.

Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by Vijayakant and currently led by his wife Premalatha Vijayakant, appears to be keeping its options open despite exiting the alliance with the AIADMK formed early last year. With other allies on the sidelines, their joining the Opposition will not make much difference to the outcome.

Unless Naam Tamilar Katchi or TVK, which has a vote share of around 8% in 2024, joins the Opposition – which seems a long shot – the DMK-led coalition looks set to be firmly in the driver’s seat.