‘The fear was immense’: al-Shabaab exploits fragmented politics to reclaim land in Somalia | Somalia
In early July, one night, Maryan Abdikadir Geedi finally decided that it was time to leave his small shop in Moqokori town in Hiireaan, Somalia.
Although he had heard the rapid gains of the Islamist militant movement, he hoped to stay 46-year-old. Since he married in 2013, he had seen that Geedi Moqokori had changed his hands over and over again.
“Just as the rain came and how it came, the control over Moqokori, but this time it was different,” he said.
Since his attacks in February, al-Şebab, in 2023, supported the US and Turkish air support and added more to the allied tribal militias that added to the coalition of a government forces and allied tribal militias that added more to the allied tribal militias. In July, he reached 40 km (25 miles) in Mogadishu, the capital of war. Some observers estimated that capital could fall.
“Fear was enormous. The word began to spread it [al-Shabaab] They were moving. When there was too much to withstand fear, I decided to go. ”
In recent weeks, even though the government security forces are still in defense, the facade lines have been stabilized. There is a construction boom in Mogadishu, and now he believes that capital will be captured by militants.
Although the United States intensified air strikes against Al-Sabaab and other militant groups in Somalia, Washington pointed out that Donald Trump will not send hundreds of special forces withdrawn.
Instead, countries such as Türkiye, United Arab Emirates and Uganda have been supporting troops, training or air in recent years, while the African Union mission continues to go on the field. Egypt is now sending a great condition.
Analysts say that government forces will collapse without this support.
“This is a strategic impact, Sam Samira Gaid said, Regional Security Analyst Balqiis, a Thinktank based on Mogadishu. “Al-Shabab Mogadishu is not interested in buying. Most of the rural areas have many small towns. We have been stuck here for a while… And we will get stuck with him as long as the government has the advantage provided by foreign troops.”
The success of the last al-Sabaab attack took an important blow to the morale of the fragmented security forces and the judgment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. “Total War” After coming to power in 2022, against the militants.
“I lost 20 friends [fellow soldiers] And he was wounded twice in the war. ”
“I fought in Beera Yabaal, Aboorey, Yasooman, Mabax, Ceel Qooxle, Adan Yabaal, Masjid Cali Gaduud and Daaru Nicma.”[Al-Shabaab fighters] If they die, while heaven await them, most soldiers want to gather their inadequate salaries and return to their families. “
In recent months, veteran said he was worried about the rapid earnings made by Al-Şebab in recent months, but he was afraid of worse if nothing was done to stop the militant progress.
“Now [al-Shabaab] in a position where they can move fighters and materials [around the country] As a result of capturing strategic towns in Hiireaan. This carries the risk of falling more regions in South and Middle Somalia. They are moving fast ..
The observers point to the weakness of the government as the main reason for the last success of the militants.
Ahmed Soliman, an expert in East Africa at Chatham House in London, said, “The situation with al-Shab is always determined by the general political and security environment and is quite bad at the moment.”
“There are really large parts in the country, which makes it very difficult for the federal government to coordinate the terrorist efforts of its forces and international forces. Al-Şebab is currently taking advantage of a very fragmented political view.”
Soliman said that more financing is also uncertain for the 160mo annual African unity in Somalia.
Three weeks after Moqokori’s fall, Al-Shababab seized the strategic town of MaxaasHe sent shock waves throughout the country.
37, “Every day more people began to leave. Houses were abandoned, stores and markets remained empty,” he said.
With her husband and six children, Nimo treated the skirts of the city where they could hitchhike in a truck set out for Beledweyne, the capital of the state of Hirshabelle.
“My children who scream and scream. It worsened than the fears of IEDs and land mines on this road.
Nimo remained in Beledweyne, where the government has been successfully defending.
“I’m here, but at the same time nothing is worse, feeling like a refugee in your own land,” he said. “I want to go home, but it will only show time if I have a chance.”
