The hard truth: Why tariffs and tax cuts can’t outrun America’s debt clock

Americans fall in love with a fantasy every four years. A new president will change the federal budget deficit.

Republicans promise growth will outpace debt.

Democrats promise taxes on the rich will solve the problem.

And the US Debt Clock keeps spinning like a Vegas slot machine that only pays out in red ink.

As of 2026, the United States is roughly $38.5 trillion in debt, and that amount is climbing to nearly $8 billion every day. Net interest payments on the debt officially exceed our annual defense budget.

We don’t discuss politics anymore. We are discussing arithmetic.

Trump Plan: Growth + Tariffs + Tax Cuts

Let’s be fair: Trump’s economic philosophy has been consistent since he started the campaign.

Extend tax cuts; no tips, overtime or Social Security taxes.

Add tariff revenue; It is now a political and legal struggle.

Minimize bureaucracy – it started with DOGE.

Grow GDP faster than spending; only a 1.4% increase last quarter.

This worked well when debt was $20 trillion lower and interest rates were near zero.

But today’s figures are very different.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that current policy paths will keep deficits around $2 trillion annually, with debt reaching nearly 120% of GDP within a decade.

Here is the translation. Even if the economy has an incredible GDP growth rate, the government still spends much more than it collects. Why does no one really understand income and expenses in Washington DC and 85% of our income comes from two packages of personal income tax and payroll tax?

The Real Problem Isn’t Taxes or Tariffs. Here’s the 60-second explainer.

This is interest. There is a lot of interest. Interest on the debt alone is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2026, currently accounting for roughly 14% of federal spending.

This means that before securing funding:

Defense

Social Security

Medicare

Infrastructure

our veterans

It’s like playing credit card roulette, and interest just keeps building with no end in sight. No State of the Union message, Republican or Democrat, could surpass such a large compound interest bill.

Politicians Don’t Like to Campaign About Maths

TRUMP SET THE STAGE FOR AMERICA’S COMEBACK AFTER BIDEN’S HARMFUL ECONOMY

Last financial year:

Amount spent by government: $7.01 trillion

Amount collected by the state: 5.23 trillion dollars

Annual deficit: $1.78 trillion

To clear the vulnerability overnight, you will need one of the following:

• Raise taxes by roughly 35% (think top tax rates going from 37% to 50%) and remember that nearly half of the people in America pay no federal taxes at all. • Drastically cut benefits, which essentially means one of the big three: Medicare, Social Security, or Defense. • Or growing the economy at wartime levels for a decade.

Does any of this sound realistic to you?

Why Trump Unfortunately Can’t Fix the Problem (And Neither Can Anyone Else Alone)

Even Trump’s policies that add tariff revenue are projected to increase deficits over time because tax cuts reduce revenue faster than tariffs raise it.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth we all must face. America has policy problems, but more importantly, America has a problem with promises. No one wants to sacrifice anything, and when you’re in debt, something has to be sacrificed to get out of debt.

The Real State of the Union

Federal debt will not be erased.

It will be inflated, written off, monetized, or slowly eroded by negative real interest rates because mathematically a $38.5 trillion balance sheet cannot be offset by incremental policy adjustments. US is not the default. It dilutes.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD FOX NEWS APPLICATION

Presidents can no longer control the budget deficit. Trump may change tax policy. Already did. Congress may try to change spending. But they rarely agree. But reality is reality. Changing this quickly is like twirling Queen Elizabeth around in the bathtub.

Unless America changes expectations or sacrifices are made on both sides of the aisle, the debt clock will continue ticking no matter whose name is on the door of the Oval Office. The debate in Washington is ideological. The risk for all of us is our position to be crowned the currency of the world.