SpaceX Shares Indicated More Than 35% Higher in Shadow Trading

(Bloomberg) — Shadow markets are pricing in a blockbuster stock debut for SpaceX, signaling an upside of at least 35% for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company.

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Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International marked a market capitalization of $2.4 trillion in Singapore on Friday morning; That’s a gain of more than 35% from a price of $135 per share and a $1.77 trillion valuation at the initial public offering.

On crypto platform Hyperliquid, perpetual futures, non-expiring contracts tied to SpaceX were trading around $180, implying a valuation of over $2.3 trillion. The instrument has traded more than $143 million in the last 24 hours and currently has open interest of more than $208 million.

Prediction markets have also been added to bullish signals. Polymarket investors have a 70% chance that SpaceX’s market value will close above $2 trillion on its first day of trading.

While these signals indicate some level of enthusiasm, they will not translate directly into stock price movement. Because shadow markets are often thinner and less transparent than public markets, prices can fluctuate sharply and are driven by a small group of traders, leverage or short-term speculation rather than broad investor demand.

Still, the pricing underscores just how voracious investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure has become. A first-day rally for SpaceX would likely bode well for the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC and provide bankers with evidence that public markets can absorb trillion-dollar valuations that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

“Demand for the IPO is good, and there is also great interest in pre-IPO trading,” said IG market analyst Fabien Yip. He added that this was the most popular pre-IPO trade, “which we have done so far even though valuation looks stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum continues, it will set a precedent for the next mega IPOs.”

But in the short term, a strong debut from SpaceX could also draw money from the Magnificent Seven stock group and even Tesla Inc., while also lifting suppliers, peers and shareholders tied to Musk’s worldwide rocket and satellite company.

Read: Asian Investors Locked in IPO Find Ways to Bet on SpaceX