‘The perception is Carney is a wartime leader’: why Canada’s PM could secure a majority | Canada

C.Anada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, is on the verge of securing a majority government; His Liberal party is poised to win at least two closely watched by-elections, prompting an “almost unprecedented” series of defections from rival parties.

Carney’s ability to turn a powerful minority into a narrow majority through electoral gains and groundbreaking has cemented his reputation as a pragmatic leader beyond the hard-edged edge of partisan politics. But efforts to bring in MPs from across the political spectrum have also sparked a fierce internal debate about the Liberals’ values ​​and the risks of wielding more power.

The results of Monday evening’s three by-elections are likely to give the Liberals command of parliament. Two of the three races are expected to take place in safe areas for the party, while the third is expected to take place on the narrowest margins.

The elections followed a series of transitions in recent months. Last week, the Conservatives’ Marilyn Gladu became the fourth Tory to leave the party and join the Liberals.

Nunavut MP Lori Idlout from the left-wing New Democrat party also joined Carney’s team. Meanwhile, the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP will run as a Liberal in the Toronto by-election and is expected to win that seat easily.

Scott Reid, political adviser and former communications director to former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, said: “At a time when the Prime Minister is vulnerable leading a minority parliament, it’s almost unprecedented to attract people from such different political backgrounds. At the very least, it’s truly unique and worth real thought. What’s going on?”

Reid believes that Donald Trump’s disruptive power continues to exert influence on Canada, both through his threats to annex the country and his multi-pronged attacks on the Canadian economy. This constant and violent feud between long-time allies has led some Canadian politicians to move away from partisanship and adopt a nationalist approach to the struggle.

“Trump brought Carney and his unique talents to the fore,” Reid said. “We are now watching another effect of Trump on our politics: the desire for stability. There is a perception that Carney is a wartime leader. And in many ways what we are watching is the quietest assembly of a union government we have ever witnessed.”

As with any floor transition, the Conservatives criticized the move and their former colleagues. “Mark Carney seized an expensive Liberal majority that voters denied him, and he did it through secret deals,” Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said. published on social mediaReferring to Gladu’s own words in January, “those who have crossed the floor must face the voters in the by-election to give the voters the final say”. “I couldn’t agree more,” he said. “He should do this.”

The loss of a social conservative like Gladu is a blow for Poilievre, who faces growing discontent within his party despite easily winning the last leadership review. More Conservatives are said to be considering switching to the Liberals.

Reid sees all this as a serious threat to Poilievre. “If you had told me two years ago that Pierre Poilievre would lose the federal election by a 25-point margin, lose the house race he has held for years, and then lose four MPs and hand over the parliamentary majority to his arch-rival? Well, you have just described a politically dead person,” he said.

But Gladu’s decision to join the Liberals sparked tension within the party over how big a tent they wanted to pitch and the ideological costs of consolidating power. Gladu has supported the “freedom convoy” during the coronavirus crisis and clearly holds anti-abortion views that clash sharply with Liberal dogma. Under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Liberal candidates were required to be pro-choice on abortion rights.

Supriya Dwivedi, columnist and former advisor to Justin Trudeau Published on X: “Friends, maybe we should re-read the Values [Carney’s 2021 book]. “We may have missed the part where Carney says we don’t actually need it.”

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Carney said Gladu was committed to voting with the government on issues related to women’s suffrage.

“There is no change in the values ​​of the Liberal party, let’s be clear about that,” he said, adding that he wanted to join his party to help the country at a critical time. “We are lucky [MPs have defected] because they bring expertise, they bring perspectives, they bring energy, and they help us work together.”

Gladu herself later said that she was consistent in her belief that “women should have the right to choose.” She said: “Of course, I have deep-rooted religious traditions, but I am ready to support the rights of women in this country. I will vote with the government. I will protect women’s right and freedom to choose so that people can be who they are and love those they love.”

Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior strategist for the left-wing New Democratic Party, said questions about a possible clash of values ​​within the Liberals make sense when the Liberals are viewed as a “pure power broker party.”

He said: “Historically, and currently, the main thing that unites people in the Liberal ranks is the ability to form and hold government. Ideology has always been secondary to that. But Carney is a compelling figure in this trade war with Trump, and a lot of people want to be part of that fight.”

Polls suggest Carney has increased his lead over his political rivals since the federal election in April 2025, and the Liberals could be on course for a historic parliamentary majority if he calls a snap election.

But Leichnitz warned that there were limits to attempts to take full advantage of the party’s growing success.

“What’s the magic of Mark Carney? He’s not a politician. And the minute you call an election just to get a majority, you’ve lost that,” he said. “And more passers-by face a similar risk: When you start accepting people who openly violate your party’s stated position on abortion, for example, then it starts to look like your values ​​are a little flexible in the pursuit of power, which is a political move.”

“The danger for the Prime Minister is that openly political movements put the greatest strength of his brand at risk.”