The probation service is in a state of perpetual crisis. Can it protect the public from tens of thousands more criminals on the streets?
KAs crisis-hit prisons in Britain overflow, ministers are implementing plans to electronically tag tens of thousands more criminals and punish them in society.
But with the Probation Service in a perpetual state of crisis – with too few staff handling too many cases and units missing 74 per cent of targets – fears are growing that the agency is “set up for failure”.
Chief probation inspector Martin Jones said reforms currently progressing through parliament under the Criminal Code were “an opportunity to transform our justice system”.
But he warned it risked “undermining public confidence in probation” if applied incorrectly, adding that labeling would not stop offenders from reoffending unless they had enough trained staff to help them turn their lives around.
“Unless the government thinks very, very carefully about how it uses probation resources, I think there is a danger of failing the Probation Service, and that is completely unacceptable,” he said. Independent.
Unions representing beleaguered probation officers also fear a £700 million cash injection promised to meet extra demand will be swallowed up by expensive contracts with private labeling firms rather than supporting frontline staff.
It comes after the government’s spending watchdog, the National Audit Office (NAO), found the service faces a shortfall of 3,150 full-time staff next year even if it meets ambitious recruitment targets.
Meanwhile, police chiefs are bracing for a 6 per cent rise in reported crime in the first year of reforms and are calling for £400 million in additional funding to deal with it.
‘Inadequate’ funding to turn service around in crisis
Mr Jones said all 30 probation distribution units he had overseen since his appointment as probation monitor in January last year had been rated “inadequate” or “requiring improvement”.
Moreover, performance has deteriorated since the Probation Service was brought back under public control in 2021, according to a damning NAO report published last month.
The service currently meets just 26 per cent of targets set by Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) and overworked staff are still reeling from repeated early release programs that have put them under huge pressure.
Tania Bassett, national officer of NAPO, which represents thousands of probation officers, warned members “have no faith” that the £700m of extra funding promised by 2028 will reach frontline services.
“We fear that (almost all) of this money for this push for AI will go to private labeling companies and private IT firms,” he said. Independent.
“There have been absolutely no promises made to invest in frontline staff or facilities, some of which are barely fit for purpose.
“I don’t think any of this money is going to go where it’s critically needed. I think it’s going to be tying a bow around something that’s already falling apart.”
His colleagues from the House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee described the government’s funding plans as “inadequate”, raising questions about how staff will monitor up to 22,000 extra offenders expected to be tagged in the community.
Labeling is not a ‘panacea’
In a letter to prisons minister Lord Timpson last month, his colleagues said they had “major concerns” about the ability of both probation and private contractors to meet the increase, which is the biggest in a generation.
In 2023, Serco received a £200 million contract for labeling in England and Wales; but had previously been fined £19.2 million for billing the government for tagging criminals who had died, been imprisoned or left the country.
A Channel 4 investigation earlier this year revealed some offenders were left untagged for weeks. Serco said it had “rapidly” improved its performance.
Experts have warned that the “nearly doubling” of those tagged poses a “tremendous challenge” given current pressures on the system.
“It is almost certain that the much-watched £700 million allocated to recruiting, developing and retaining staff over the next four years will be inadequate,” they wrote.
“We believe that without major changes the system runs the risk of being overwhelmed and the Probation Service will begin to fail.”
Ms Bassett acknowledged labeling could be a useful tool but said it should “never be seen as a panacea”.
“It can be helpful when used correctly, but by itself it does not provide any rehabilitation or eliminate the causes of crime,” he added. “It needs to be used in conjunction with other types of control.”
Mr Jones accepted that labeling “just gives you information” but does not stop someone from committing a crime.
He called for investments to focus on supporting frontline staff, increasing drug treatment services and ensuring people leaving prison have somewhere to live.
“We know that if someone gets released from prison and has no place to live, their likelihood of reoffending immediately doubles,” he added.
“If there is a choice to be made here, I would prefer that more probation officers are trained and able to do the very difficult job we are asking them to do, which is to work with people, understand the risk they pose and give them the help they need to turn their lives around.
“And labels play a role in that, but they’re just a tool, and ultimately what you need is more probation staff to do this very difficult job.”
Hiring probation officers is like ‘trying to fill a leaky bucket’
Mr Jones said over-stretched staff had shown “heroism” in response to recent early release schemes which see prisoners released after just 40 per cent of their sentences to ease prison overcrowding.
“There were probably people working late into the night, into weekends, to make sure the regulations worked as well as possible under the circumstances,” he added.
“And as part of that, I think we owe them a huge debt of gratitude. But if you look beyond that success story, you’re putting more pressure on people who are already overworked.”
He said trying to fill vacancies in the Probation Service was like “filling a leaky bucket” as staff continued to leave in droves amid increasing workloads. This also left the service with an inexperienced workforce; In some offices newly qualified probation officers were the most senior staff on the team.
The government has promised to recruit 1,300 more probation officers by April next year, but this still leaves them 3,150 short, according to the NAO report.
And considering it takes at least 19 months to train a probation officer, it will be a long time before new hires are ready to handle the full caseload.
The inspector, who previously led the Parole Board for nine years, believes the government should reduce the scope of some probation checks to help them deal with the situation. This includes a focus on the first six months after release, the highest risk offenders, and those trapped in the destructive cycle of reoffending.
He called on ministers: “Don’t ask them like that. [probation staff] to work harder, harder, harder, harder, because that’s one of the reasons why I think the Probation Service is in a constant crisis, because you’re always asking them to go the extra mile and sometimes if you do that you’re going to run out of resources.
Ms Bassett said her members were feeling “fired up” after it was revealed HMPPS had miscalculated how many staff were needed to monitor offenders in more than 5,000 roles in 2024. As a result, many probation officers were found to face performance evaluations while being expected to complete unrealistic workloads.
Meanwhile, unions are still waiting for a response to their demands for 12 percent wages for next year. They say workers earning £30,000 face a real pay cut of £21,060 as their wages fail to keep up with inflation.
He added: “If they don’t prioritize the workforce, there won’t be a workforce. Staff are undervalued and underrecognised.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: “This government took over the probation service under great pressure and this has placed an enormous burden on our hard-working staff.
“We are fixing this problem with the 1,000 trainee probation officers recruited last year and plan to hire at least 1,300 more by April.
“We are also increasing the probation budget by up to £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce the number of managers so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending and helps protect the public as part of our Plan for Change.”
