The whole world watches Iran—but Russia and China take notes

The world now knows that, with a daring daytime attack on a clear Saturday in Tehran, the United States and the State of Israel launched what President Donald Trump called “major combat operations” against the Islamic Republic of Iran in his address to the nation.

The epic Operation Rage is the kind of thing that shouldn’t happen under President Donald J. Trump: America appears to be conducting an open-ended regime change operation in the Middle East. Trump, who devoted the prestige of his presidency to this project, now needs to make it happen. We must be open to the possibility that this can be achieved quickly. If not, then this becomes the most important and, indeed, the defining project of his second term.

There are important differences between this regime change project and the projects carried out before it in Iraq and Afghanistan. First of all, there is no American invasion force on the horizon. American planes will fly wherever they want in Iran; American soldiers will not do this.

In his speech, the President made clear that he expects the Iranian people to overthrow his regime and that there is reason to believe they will do so. (Footage of Iranians allegedly applauding the death of the Ayatollah proves the truth of this belief.) The good news is that other models are not followed, if desired. The bad news is that the most viable precedent for regime change through air power alone is Libya.

But all of this is speculative in these opening days. Iranians are not Libyans, Iraqis or Afghans. After the elaborate machinations of the Venezuela operation, where we now know that human ingenuity and shrewd political calculations played a major role in America’s success, who is to say that the same thing did not happen in Iran? The benefit of the doubt is functionally irrelevant in hindsight, but this battle-making team deserved it.

The Iranian regime is currently reeling under Israeli-American blows in part because it is not a learning entity. Having had the opportunity to study the American style of warfare, especially under President Donald J. Trump, who has attacked multiple times before, the United States has apparently failed to adapt. The same is not true of America’s two great power rivals, Russia and China. They will have already learned two important lessons.

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First, the Americans were never given the time and space to mount a strike force against Iran that took weeks to assemble. For nearly 40 years, every major American war has begun with an actual Operation Desert Shield: a prolonged and highly visible movement of forces and materiel into the theater of action. This movement almost inevitably turns into war; only the American build-up against Iraq in early 1998 is an exception.

In the generation leading up to World War I, mobilization became an act of war—the threat of troops on railroads and positions alone was sufficient to justify war—and it would make sense for America’s enemies to come to a similar conclusion now. When American forces gather, an American attack usually follows. Therefore, preventing this massification is both urgent and challenging.

Another important lesson for America’s enemies is that America’s power projection depends heavily on free access to bases in allied countries. A large-scale American campaign would not have been possible without land access: This was true even against Venezuela, and is certainly true against Iran.

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Currently, this access extends not only to Middle East facilities in Israel, Jordan and elsewhere; it also extends to the network of European facilities that have been the center of American power abroad for generations. Access to these European bases, as well as logistics and support in Europe, is crucial to what America is doing now.

This is a truth that American policymakers and officials must internalize, because our enemies have already internalized it. Just as it becomes a necessity for them to prevent the massification of America, so does weakening alliances or denying America access through other means. We expect efforts to break and disperse these alliances to accelerate. Although not every corner of American politics understands that our alliance structure is to America’s benefit, every corner of Russian and Chinese politics does.

The results of these lessons will emerge in visible and invisible ways in the very near future.

MIKE DAVIS: WHY TRUMP’S ATTACK ON IRAN WAS NECESSARY AND LEGAL

This is the kind of thing that shouldn’t happen under President Donald J. Trump, but it is happening because, unlike the Ayatollah and his regime, the president is learning and adapting.

What stands out is his unique predilection to cut the Gordian knot on permanent strategic questions, as well as a set of realities and enduring American interests that now guide his actions.

A president who ended the Venezuelan regime and is considering the end of the Cuban regime is ready to do the same to the Iranian regime.

Of course, he has ideological priorities, but unlike many in the Beltway, they guide rather than constrain. They are also aware of his own sense of history, which he expressed in his speech based on Iran’s violent half-century war against the United States. He asked for peace but was rejected. Now the Iranian regime – what’s left of it – is reaping the whirlwind.

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There will be a lot of talk about the consequences of all this in Washington, particularly about how the “restrictionists” establishment, even though they feel they are at the historic peak of Beltway influence, have failed to prevent this outcome. To be fair, they can point out that they will be proven right in ten years.

However, one group was defeated and deserved it. This is the nasty anti-Semitic chorus that has emerged from left and right in recent years, often under the guise of anti-Zionism or “he’s having the conversation we need to be having about Israel.”

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Here’s a conversation starter for them: Right now, American men and women are in danger, waging war against one of America’s cruelest and most implacable enemies. Along with them are our allies, our friends, and now our comrades-in-arms, the Israelis. This is a fact that must be certain.

We are at war, and in the skies above Iran the Stars and Stripes and the Star of David fight together for you and me.

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