Trump heads weakened into a season of tough political challenges

President Trump began his State of the Union address Tuesday night by projecting confidence in his personal power to “Make America Great Again” despite the troubles he said his Democratic predecessors had inflicted on him.

It was also in a uniquely precarious position; He was facing his lowest approval ratings ever, declining support for his signature issue on immigration, incessant pressure from the slow release of the Epstein files, a stagnant economy, rising international tensions and upcoming midterm elections in which Democrats appeared poised to make gains, possibly even regaining control of Congress.

Trump remains popular with his base, utterly infallible in the eyes of his loyalist administration, and still commands extraordinary respect from many leaders in his party. Many of his supporters share his confidence and argue that polls showing declining support are fake.

“This is what ‘America First’ looks like,” said Paul Dans, former chairman of the conservative Project 2025 playbook that Trump has largely embraced. “Last year was extraordinary. He accomplished more in one year than most presidents do in a full term.”

However, political observers see a picture full of vulnerabilities for the second-term president heading into the 2026 elections.

“It stands at a time when political capital is rapidly declining,” said Rob Stutzman, a California Republican consultant. “From a historical perspective, a sixth-year president who goes through a tough midterm will likely never move higher in terms of political parity, so he is probably past the peak of his power.”

Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic strategist and director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future at USC, agrees that Trump is in as “a weak position” as any president heading into the State of the Union address in recent memory. “I don’t think the country sees Trump as the solution to anything at this point.”

But Shrum also noted that Trump is not behaving like other weakened presidents.

Instead of taking stock and moving away from unpopular policies, including on immigration and the economy, he is signaling that his party will not accept major losses in the medium term, leaving the country in “totally uncharted waters,” Shrum said.

“We have a president who is severely weakened by conventional standards, but acts as if he has maximum power,” he said. “We have a president who is deeply unpopular, who by all accounts needs to see his party do very poorly in the midterm elections, but who seems determined to interfere in the midterm elections in any way possible.”

In the polls

A. Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll The report released Sunday showed that 60 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 39 percent approve. The last time Trump did this badly in this poll was shortly after the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

A. SSRS’s CNN poll The report, released Monday, said Trump’s job approval rating, at 36 percent, fell to just 26 percent last year, with a 19-point drop among Latinos, an 18-point drop among Americans under 45 and a 15-point drop among political independents.

Shrum said such sharp declines in support among Latino voters and independent voters do not bode well for Trump or other Republicans on the November ballot; especially given that the president, who often rejects votes not in his favor, does not seem inclined to change his policies.

Dans, who is running for Senate against incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, dismissed Trump’s falling poll numbers as “fake or engineered” and said the president should “go full Trump” by doubling down on his agenda.

on immigration

Trump has polled well on immigration in the past. But a harsh crackdown by Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other federal agents arresting people without criminal records, detaining U.S. citizens and legal immigrants, and killing U.S. citizens in Minneapolis changed that. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that 58 percent of adults disapprove of Trump’s immigration issue.

Stutzman said Trump and his team were clearly aware that their approach was misleading voters, which is why they recently replaced the leadership team in Minneapolis. But the broader policy remained in place and “the numbers are still crashing on them,” he said.

Shrum said that if Trump “were intent on improving his situation, he could change the way ICE acts and bring different faces to the effort and focus on people who are actually convicted criminals,” but instead he and other administration officials “seem determined to move forward.”

Dance said Trump “had a clear mandate regarding mass immigration in 2024, and that was to reverse that flow and end it,” and that’s what he’s doing. “Everyone is going home.”

at Epstein

Trump has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing involving his one-time acquaintance, disgraced financier and convicted sex abuser Jeffrey Epstein. But questions about Epstein’s ties to Trump and other powerful men remain as evidence from multiple investigations into Epstein’s misconduct continues to be revealed.

Republicans in Congress broke ties with the president and joined Democrats last year to pass a bill requiring the release of the records. Justice Department officials slowed the release and further delayed it by redacting and withholding records.

The recordings contained unproven accusations of wrongdoing by Trump, which he denied. Both Democrats and Republicans argued that more records should be released.

About economy

Trump was dealt a blow last week when the US Supreme Court blocked his sweeping tariffs on international trading partners.

Trump has said his administration will use other legal authority to impose similar or even tougher tariffs, even though polls show his tariffs are unpopular.

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted before the court decision found: 57 percent of respondents disapproved Trump’s management of the economy and 64% disapproved It’s about managing tariffs.

Dans said Trump has already tamed inflation and that “the economy is ready to take off like a rocket ship,” especially if Congress gives the president leeway to continue enacting policies aimed at returning jobs to the United States that long ago went abroad.

“We’re really focused on reindustrialization,” Dans said. “This won’t happen overnight, but all the building blocks are being put in place.”

Look ahead

Stutzman said there’s already evidence that Trump “doesn’t have the same hold on Congress as he used to,” given the Epstein files and recent votes on tariffs, and that the conservative-leaning Supreme Court is still willing to rule against Trump, as it did on the tariffs.

If Democrats regain control in the midterm elections, Stutzman said, “the next two years will be a quagmire” as Trump sees his influence diminish even further, blocking the Democratic agenda and launching one investigation after another.

Dance said the people standing in Trump’s way, including Congress, should vacate because they are “in no way violating” the will of the voters. “It’s always about what people want and that’s what he’ll deliver.”

Shrum said it’s a big concern that Trump is trying to avoid losing power by interfering with voting, including the processing of mail-in ballots; just as Trump’s “Wag the Dog” move has drawn the United States into an overseas armed conflict — a reference to the 1997 movie of the same name in which an unpopular president uses foreign war to save an election.

But Shrum said he didn’t think the latter would actually benefit Trump — “I don’t think another foreign attack at this point would make any president more unpopular” and said a Republican blunder in November was likely, with or without intervention.

Shrum said Trump will “try to govern solely by executive order” and will be sued and his agenda will be mired in direct court battles by the end of his presidency; This is partly a product of his confident approach to management, despite all indications being his “my way or the highway” approach to management.