Trump is talking tough on Iran, analysts doubt U.S. will strike
The possibility of a U.S. attack on Iran has sent oil prices tumbling this year, but analysts tell CNBC that an attack would require greater military commitment and be more complex than the United States is prepared for.
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Tensions are high and despite talks in Oman last week, both sides remain at an impasse. US President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Iranian regime has increased following last month’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters across the country.
Trump said this week that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East as Washington and Tehran prepare to restart talks. He threatened Iran on Tuesday with “something very tough” if it did not agree to Washington’s demands, which range from halting the country’s nuclear enrichment to cutting Tehran’s ballistic missile program.
The United States deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in January. This brings the number of missile destroyers in the region to six, but analysts say this still will not be enough to topple the regime. Making good on his “something drastic” threat would mean a protracted conflict in a region Trump is wary of.
“U.S. forces in the region are not sufficient to support a significant long-term military operation that would be necessary to achieve any major military objective in Iran,” Alireza Ahmadi, executive fellow of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told CNBC. he said.
Trump has also stepped up pressure on the Islamic Republic, applying financial pressure to an economy already crippled by sanctions. Just last month, he swore To impose customs duties on any country purchasing any goods or services from Iran.
But it’s unclear what might happen next. Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran Project director, said in a statement to CNBC, “There is no telling what President Trump will do,” but added that Trump is aware that “the Iran problem set does not lend itself to clean and easy military options.”
Can the US still attack Iran?
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC that “the cost of not attacking Iran will be enormous,” adding: “Trump’s legacy will be as the president who got Iran to go nuclear.”
“The president is in a tough spot, his options aren’t very good, and it’s a very risky moment at this point,” Rapidan Energy Group chairman Bob McNally told CNBC’s Dan Murphy last week. The country’s ballistic missile program means “we have to go big, because Iran is pretty formidable,” McNally added.
What are Trump’s options?
Trump said last week that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei should be “very concerned.”
But analysts warned that targeting Iran’s leadership would not be like the operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
“The Iranian government is not Venezuela,” said Alireza Ahmedi, adding that if the USA dismisses Khamenei, “someone else will replace him immediately and the army will de facto rule the country for the foreseeable future.”
Power in Iran is concentrated around Khamenei. While there is a president, the political, military and foreign policy decisions of the Islamic Republic are always made by him. For the past three decades, Khamenei has held ultimate authority with the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which helps implement the regime’s policies and plays a key role in its foreign policy.
Rubin told CNBC that there would still be an “open question” about what would happen to the Revolutionary Guard if the United States removed Khamenei and replaced him with a regime official.
Iranian worshipers hold portraits of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a country flag during a protest to condemn Israeli attacks on Iran following Friday prayer ceremonies in downtown Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurfoto | Getty Images
“The US cannot change the regime with air power alone and without any troops (US or Iran) on the ground. It can only change the regime into something else, which could be worse, or turn Iran into another failed state,” Vaez told CNBC.
Ahmadi said regime change in Iran “will require military commitment at least on the level of the Iraq War, and Trump is unlikely to support that.” Between 2003 and 2011, 4,500 American armed forces personnel were killed in Iraq.
The White House claimed that Iran’s nuclear facilities were destroyed following attacks on three main nuclear facilities last year. “destroyed.” Iran moved quickly to repair damage to ballistic missile sites, but analysis shows New York Times, He made “limited fixes” at major nuclear facilities hit by the US.
Iran has long claimed that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons. As talks between Washington and Tehran resume, Iran has offered to limit its enrichment to low levels. The United States has opposed Iranian enrichment of uranium since the collapse of the nuclear deal in 2018.
Although the United States has promised to attack Iran if it continues its nuclear and missile programs, it is unclear whether these facilities will be ready for attack again. “Both options are likely to lead to disproportionate retaliation from Iran, which could escalate the conflict into a regional conflict,” Vaez said.
Potential Iranian retaliation
Iran has vowed to retaliate against US bases in the region if Washington attacks.
“Iran is betting that the United States does not have enough missile interceptors and THAAD systems to protect Israel as well as its extensive military bases and facilities in the region,” Ahmadi told CNBC.
The USA has around 40,000 military personnel in the Middle East. It has bases in the Persian Gulf, including U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain, Al Udeid air base in Qatar, which Iran struck last summer, and Al Dhafra air base just south of Abu Dhabi.
In this still from video, missiles and air defense interceptors light up the night sky over Doha after Iran launched an attack on US forces at Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on June 23, 2025.
Getty Images
“Iran will undoubtedly target US bases and naval assets in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf. It is also likely to target Israel. Remnants of its proxy forces may also join in,” Vaez told CNBC.
Ahmadi added that Iran “seems to be preparing for a protracted military conflict that will last a week, if not months.” “There appears to be a perception among Iranian leaders that the United States has overestimated its influence and that a serious war may be necessary to correct these assumptions,” he added.
