Trump says he wants to help Iranian protesters but his advice is conflicted | Iran
Donald Trump is being warned by Iranians that it will be too late if he does not quickly fulfill his promise to help protesters who are under fire from security services in Iran, but the US president is receiving conflicting advice about the effectiveness of US intervention.
Some warn that a major intervention by Washington would only fuel the Iranian government’s narrative that the protests are being manipulated as part of an anti-Islamic conspiracy led by the United States and Israel.
Trump vowed to “shoot at Iran” if Iranian security services attacked protesters; but analysts suggested the speed of the crisis meant his team did not have a ready response. There have been no major changes in US military assets, and many of its closest partners in the Middle East, such as Qatar, are calling for restraint. According to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, military options and other possibilities are being presented to the uncertain president. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday.
Tehran’s population density, home to around 12 million Iranians, means it is difficult to mount a targeted attack from the air without risking the loss of large numbers of civilian lives, as the US-Israeli offensive in June demonstrated. More than 1,000 Iranians died, creating a new nationalism that has now apparently dissipated.
The obvious potential targets of the United States — leading Revolutionary Guard figures and religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — have strengthened personal security measures, making the decapitation strategy even more difficult. But Revolutionary Guard bases and police barracks south of Tehran are seen as potentially more suitable targets.
Over the weekend, Iranian opposition leaders lobbied Washington, arguing that the regime’s violence amounted to crimes against humanity. One group has warned that protesters are likely to withstand two more days of current police and military violence.
Seven Iranian political, civic and cultural figures urged Trump in a letter to understand the extent of the ongoing repression. The letter was signed by religious scholar and journalist Javad Akbarin, Nazanin Ansari, general manager of London’s Kayhan newspaper, Foad Pashaei, general secretary of Iran’s Constitutional Party, Transitional Council spokesperson Yazdan Shohadai, lawyer and Nobel peace prize winner Shirin Ebadi, writer and director Mohsen Makhmalbaf, and Abdullah Mohtadi, general secretary of Iran’s Kurdistan Komala party. Pointing out that Trump has repeatedly promised to intervene, he warned that “every minute delay will expand the extent of the crime committed against Iran’s defenseless people.”
The son of former Shah Reza Pahlavi, who claims to have some control over the protests, also called on Trump to take action. But he softened his advice to protesters, emphasizing self-preservation. “Go to the main streets of the cities in groups with your friends and family, do not leave each other and the crowds of people along the way, do not enter the side streets that will endanger your life.”
Many outside observers advise caution, arguing that US bombing could be counterproductive.
On Iran, Danny Citrinowicz, a former senior Israeli defense intelligence expert, said the real question is whether, if Trump takes deliberately limited action to avoid escalation, it “will actually impact the regime’s ability to confront protesters, or whether it will instead produce the opposite outcome, given the expectations of the Iranian opposition for deeper and more decisive U.S. intervention.”
Sanam Vakil of Chatham House’s Middle East program said the likely primary effect of U.S. intervention would be to “promote the unity of the elite and quell fissures within the regime at a moment of increased fragility.”
“The strongest argument against US intervention is the Trump administration’s failure to manage peace in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, or political transitions in Syria and Venezuela. They have made bold promises everywhere. But they do not have the bandwidth and strategies to actually get things done,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, managing director of Borsa and Bazaar.
Former British Ambassador to Tehran Rob Macaire said that the US attacks “may not turn out as people expected” and pointed out that the attacks in June were not seen as helping to reduce the power of the state. He also admitted that Trump’s statements mean “we’re going to get to a point where there’s a gap between rhetoric and reality.”
He called on policymakers to think more about how the transition could be achieved. He said: “This is a government that came on a platform of economic reform that said it would make the lives of ordinary people better, and was partly committed to the idea that there was a deal with the West and sanctions would be lifted. But that didn’t happen.”
The Iranian government “doesn’t have answers to the inequality, the structural challenges, the IRGC’s domination of the economy, the smuggling that continues with sanctions, and how that’s stretching the government’s resources. There’s no way to solve the problems that the protesters are so angry about. But there’s no one out there doing that; there’s no one you can put on the throne, Pahlavi or anyone else.”
The Iranian government is currently trying to convince Iranians that they are responsible for saving the country from chaos originating from abroad. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian repeatedly called for national unity in a TV interview on Sunday, urging the country to move forward “hand in hand” against an external enemy that is emboldening rebels. He said 80 percent of the protesters had legitimate grievances, but those who burned down mosques and shops were rioters and terrorists.
He accused the United States of “using the economy as a weapon to subjugate us. My request to the nation is to please stay and support us.”
