Trump says tax refunds are ‘substantially greater than ever before’
Typically, filers get a refund if they overpay taxes throughout the year through paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. Elephants often have a balance due if they haven’t made enough payments.
Earlier on Feb. 13, Treasury Secretary and Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the average tax refund so far this season is 22% higher. It was unclear how many days of returns Bessent’s figure included or what comparison period he used.
IRS filing season statistics released later on Feb. 13 showed the average refund as of Feb. 6 was $2,290, up nearly 11% from a year ago. Treasury did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment on the discrepancy.
But “We’re still very early in the tax filing season,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, told CNBC.
Filing season opened on January 26, and initial IRS data included returns through February 6. Lautz said the average refund size “comes out” usually in late February, when payments also include the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit.
Right now, he said, “it’s too early to tell whether any data points are persistent trends.”
How big can tax refunds be?
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The average refund could increase compared to 2025 as the IRS shares more filing data, according to a Feb. 18 note from Bank of America Securities.
The company projects that Trump’s tax law changes could create “an average incentive of around $1,000 per household” during the 2026 tax filing season. About half of that change could come from a higher cap on the federal The deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, and the “no tax on overtime” deduction, analysts wrote.
That refund estimate aligns with an October study from investment bank Piper Sandler that predicted Trump’s “retroactive tax deductions could average around $1,000 per return, but for some applicants the figure would be significantly higher.”
In 2025, average tax refund The amount through Oct. 17 was $3,052, according to IRS data.
But individual refunds could vary significantly this season depending on 2025 withholding and what new Trump provisions affect a taxpayer’s situation.
