Christmas chocolates prices: Christmas chocolates still costly despite falling cocoa prices – here’s why

Cheaper cocoa may only reach stores in the second half of next year, and that’s not guaranteed, experts say. “The prices the chocolate industry is running on right now are very high and painful. It’s going to take a long time to get over this,” Jonathan Parkman of Marex Group in London said, according to Bloomberg.

Why do chocolate prices remain high?

Last year cocoa reached almost $13,000 a tonne as disease and bad weather damaged crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which supply more than half the world’s cocoa. Prices have fallen nearly 50% this year due to better harvests, weak demand and reduced fears of famine. Last year’s high prices affected everyone from large chocolate companies to small chocolatiers in Europe and the US, with some struggling to survive.
German chocolate maker Lambertz bought cocoa at high prices and had enough cocoa to last until mid-2026. “As far as I can remember, there has never been such a price explosion,” owner Hermann Bühlbecker said, as Bloomberg noted in its report. Stockpiling expensive cocoa added about 150 million euros ($176 million) to the cost; that was about a fifth of Lambertz’s income last year. Many companies passed on costs to consumers, causing sales volumes to decline.

Chocolate producers are cautious about prices

“You could be going through a significant period in 2026 before we see any relief in prices,” Guittard Chocolate Co.’s Scott Amoye said, as Bloomberg noted. Major chocolate producers are cautious about changing prices as cocoa markets remain unstable. Nestle and Hershey said it was too early to cut retail prices. Cocoa futures fell below $5,000 in November but are now around $6,000 as traders expect smaller surpluses this season.

Cocoa farming in West Africa remains risky because farmers lack fertilizer, tools and disease-resistant plants. “Long-term structural challenges have not been resolved. Cocoa farming in West Africa faces a chronic investment gap,” said Peter Feld of Barry Callebaut AG.

Recipe changes keep prices high

Chocolate manufacturers are adapting to this situation by reducing cocoa in recipes or making smaller bars. For example, Milka bars in Germany are now 10% lighter, and UK bars such as Toffee Crisp and Penguins have reduced their cocoa content, so they are no longer officially ‘chocolate’. These recipe changes are difficult to reverse, meaning high prices will likely continue. There may be temporary promotions, but a full price reduction is unlikely anytime soon, according to Allyson Myers of Lake Champlain Chocolates. Although cocoa prices will drop sharply in 2025, chocolate prices are still high for the holiday season. Ivory Coast and Ghana produce more than half of the world’s cocoa. Other countries as mentioned in the reports include Brazil, Cameroon, Ecuador, Indonesia and Nigeria. Most cocoa is grown by small independent farmers, making the supply very susceptible to bad weather and disease.

Cocoa supply problems in West Africa

The failure of harvests to meet demand between 2021 and 2024 caused prices to rise. “This was the result of supply-side issues such as tree aging, the spread of swollen shoot virus (and) black pot disease,” Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort said in the AFP report. Farmers’ income was low, they used less fertilizer and pesticides, resulting in smaller harvests. In December 2024, cocoa prices in New York reached $12,000 per ton; in previous decades it was $1,000-$4,000.

The governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast are now helping farmers set prices and support better agriculture. “For the first time in years, I feel like we are farming with the government behind us and not on our own,” farmer Kwame Adu said, as reported by AFP. Better income allowed farmers to buy fertilizer and machinery, improve harvests, and plant new trees. “Last year was good because the rains came just as the cocoa was about to bear fruit,” said Ivorian farmer Jean Kouassi.

Analyst Ole Hansen noted that high cocoa prices are forcing companies to reduce cocoa content, make bars smaller or raise prices. Some pubs in the UK, such as Penguin and Club, now say “chocolate flavour” rather than chocolate, due to the decline of cocoa. Chocolate giants Ferrero, Mars, Mondelez and Nestle increased prices, weakening demand. Although cocoa prices have fallen to around 6 thousand dollars per ton, it is too late to reduce Christmas chocolate prices. Hansen said cheaper chocolate for Easter products could emerge, but only if the market remains stable.

FAQ

Q1. Why is chocolate still expensive even though cocoa prices have dropped?

Chocolate makers bought cocoa at high prices last year and changed their recipes, so retail prices remained high.

Q2. When might chocolate prices drop?

Prices could fall in 2026, but this depends on the stability of the market and how soon companies can use cheaper cocoa.