Trump touts cheap groceries ahead of Thanksgiving. The reality is a mixed plate | US economy

If you think Thanksgiving is more expensive this year, you’re not alone. Amid growing concerns about the rising cost of living, surveys show consumers are increasingly concerned about inflation.

Economists say the picture for holiday food prices is more mixed this year, with prices varying and largely dependent on how families shop for the holiday.

to have dismissed In the wake of inflation fears, Donald Trump appears to have moved to address a problem that has largely ended Joe Biden’s presidency. And for the past few weeks, Trump has cited Walmart’s Thanksgiving promotion as evidence that groceries are getting cheaper. Chain announced In October, it was announced that, with promotions, a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people would be sold for under $4 per person.

Trump: “Market prices have dropped a lot” in question during a speech earlier this month. “This is the biggest, biggest of them all.”

One Press releaseThe White House said the Thanksgiving promotions were “proof that, under President Trump’s leadership, America is winning the war against high prices.”

But the story of Thanksgiving food prices is much more complicated. Every family’s Thanksgiving table is a little different, and economists say a shopper’s experience depends on their in-store strategy.

“The cost of Thanksgiving dinner will actually depend on what you put in your cart and also where you shop,” said David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. “For some it may be cheaper than last year, for others it may be sticker shock.”

Different reports show mixed prices. Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report showed that a standard Thanksgiving menu could be 2% to 3% cheaper depending on the shopper’s strategy, especially if shoppers opt for store-brand items.

But it’s different analysis A study of Thanksgiving prices conducted by the Groundwork Collaborative, the Century Foundation and the American Federation of Teachers found that Thanksgiving food prices will be about 10% higher overall this year, especially if shoppers opt for branded items.

The mixed view on pricing stems from the complex factors that determine how stores price their products on Thanksgiving Day.

Shoppers have a lot of power during the largest food-centric holiday in the United States. Grocery store chains are competing with each other to offer the best deals to attract more customers to their doors. Their promotions often focus on the centerpiece of Thanksgiving: the turkey.

Wholesale prices for big birds to have jumpedPrices in Türkiye are expected to be the same or even lower than last year. That’s because Thanksgiving turkeys are what economists call “loss leaders”; These are products that companies take a loss on in order to get consumers to get their foot in the door to buy everything else on their list.

“The idea is that when times are tough, consumers are trying to budget and save money. They worry about food and vacation costs,” said Ricky Volpe, a professor of agricultural economics at California Polytechnic State University.

“There is no better way to advertise and market low prices and affordability than to set a really low price on whole turkeys and put that in your digital ads, paint it in windows, put it in your print circulars, and put big, colorful labels in the meat section saying turkey is $0.99 a pound.”

So it’s no surprise that Walmart, the largest grocery retailer in the United States, wanted to join in on the promotional frenzy. Starting in 2022, the superstore chain has been curating a “carefully curated basket” covering the Thanksgiving meal, from cranberry sauce to stuffing.

Walmart said this year’s cart was its lowest ever, which is likely why Trump chose that as a talking point. But there are some caveats: The basket Walmart created is different from last year’s. It is smaller and contains more Walmart-branded products.

The quiet changes to the company’s Thanksgiving basket reflect how food prices have changed over the past year, particularly due to Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Walmart replaced a can of Ocean Spray’s jellied cranberry sauce with a 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries. The meal also includes one less (aluminum) can of Campbell’s cream of mushroom soup.

This is consistent with Groundwork Collaborative’s analysis. higher prices for aluminum products. A can of cranberry sauce is up over 22%, while canned creamed corn is up 21%. A roll of Reynolds Wrap heavy-duty aluminum foil increased by 40%.

Packaging is just one element of the supply chain. Although Trump reversed tariffs on some food imports such as beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, higher tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to have a larger impact on food prices in the future.

“Think about how many major pieces of capital equipment need to be replaced throughout the food supply. We’re talking literally thousands of tractors, threshers, grinders, miller and industrial cutters, trucks and tractors – from the farm to the warehouse to the retail outlet, each requiring tons of steel, often imported steel,” Volpe said.

“We probably haven’t seen a lot of that yet because a lot of food companies are trying to weather the storm and hope that these tariffs will pass and then they can make their capital investments.”

So while consumers may eventually recover from Trump’s latest tariff adjustment, it’s unclear how much of prices will drop entirely. Different food industries have also been affected by climate-related events as well as tariffs. The drought affected the cattle supply, causing beef prices to rise. The disease can affect crops including leafy greens and oranges used to make orange juice.

However, promotions for Türkiye-based holidays will be as high as ever. The question that remains is what prices will look like when the last crumbs of pumpkin pie are eaten.

“What people are really interested in and responding to are the cumulative effects of inflation. We’ve seen price increases over the past few years. Food prices are up more than 25%.” [than five years ago]“This has been the first thing on a lot of consumers’ minds,” Ortega said. “There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty right now.”