Trump’s Asian allies fear Iran war will sap defences against China
But one question asked at the closed-door meeting, quoted by Reuters by a politician who attended the meeting, reflected a deeper fear that has been circulating in Asia’s corridors of power since Trump’s weekend attacks unleashed chaos in the Middle East.
How would Washington react to the gap in regional defense if it diverted the ships and missiles it uses to deter China?
The issue is urgent for Japan and South Korea, home to China’s military flexibility and major U.S. military bases that help counter nuclear-armed North Korea, and for democratic Taiwan, claimed by Beijing and armed by Washington.
“We hope that this operation will be quick and limited, and resources can be immediately shifted to Asia,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker who sits on the Taiwanese parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee.
A protracted conflict could harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific,” Chen said, adding that Taipei should be prepared for Beijing to increase “coercion” while the United States is distracted.
Stating that US operations in the Middle East will last four or five weeks but could continue for much longer, Trump plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March, although he did not confirm his visit to Beijing. Taiwan is an internal matter for China and Beijing is firmly opposed to the use of force to violate the sovereignty and security of other countries, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on Tuesday.
The U.S. Departments of State and Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment on this report.
‘STRESSED THIN’
Relaying questioning on Monday, the Japanese politician said a senior foreign ministry official had said Tokyo wanted assurances from Washington that the United States would not change its military assets.
A report last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that about 40 percent of U.S. Navy ships ready for operation are currently deployed in the Middle East.
These include an aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and at least six missile destroyers based in California, Hawaii and Japan’s Pacific ports, the U.S. Naval Institute said Monday.
George Washington, the only US carrier deployed in Asia, is undergoing maintenance at its base in Yokosuka, Japan.
“The U.S. Navy is stretched thin,” said Bryan Clark, a former U.S. defense official who specializes in naval operations at the Hudson Institute.
He added that if the war drags on, there is a realistic possibility that the United States will reduce its naval power in Asia to strengthen the Iran conflict.
“The fleet… is not sufficient to maintain a consistent presence in every theater.”
The Iran conflict is also depleting US munitions reserves, which experts have long warned. The US military has asked defense companies to increase production, but this may take several years.
This is a concern for the United States because rebuilding munitions reserves in the Indo-Pacific could help deter China from military action against Taiwan in the medium term, said a U.S. official, who requested anonymity because the issue is sensitive.
Japan is already facing delays in the delivery of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the United States and could fall even further behind schedule, said Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
BIG STRATEGY?
It’s been just three months since Washington unveiled a new security strategy that framed the Indo-Pacific as a key “geopolitical battleground” and made deterring a conflict over Taiwan a top priority.
Since then, Trump has captured the Venezuelan leader in a bold military strike, threatened to annex Greenland and teamed up with Israel to launch an air war against Iran.
But while allies in Asia worry that it is taking its eye off the prize, some analysts say Beijing has little to cheer about, at least for now.
By striking Venezuela and Iran, Trump weakened two allies that provided cheap oil flows to China and revived their economies.
Some analysts even suggested that his military actions were part of a grand plan to keep the United States focused on containing China.
But the longer Trump’s stalemate in the Middle East lasts, the more Beijing may begin to benefit from it.
“The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘containing Iran in the Middle East, then shifting resources to relations with China,'” said a Japanese ruling party lawmaker who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“But the real question is whether there will be enough resources left for the transition.”
Jennifer Parker, a former combat officer in the Royal Australian Navy, said China had taken advantage of earlier episodes of US distraction, pointing out that the US had rapidly militarized the South China Sea islands while waging the war in Afghanistan.
“Beijing will be watching closely,” added Parker, a non-resident researcher at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute think tank.
