Trump’s attack on Tehran was not doubtful. Will he handle Ali Khamenei’s replacement?
Idea
Iran’s second religious leader passed away. Will there be a third?
Ayatollah Khamenei was at the head of one of the worst regimes in the world. Mass murderers inside, bosses of terrorist networks outside.
In fact, the sting of terrorist tentacles has reached Australia in 2024, with at least two attacks on Jewish targets aimed at fomenting division.
Few will mourn the death of the Ayatollah; only their friends at home and terrorist movements abroad.
True, Russia and China protested the Israeli-American attack. But it’s because Iran is a useful ally in supplying them with oil and drones to use against the West, not because they care about Shiite fundamentalism or enjoy Khamenei’s after-dinner repartee.
However, the regime continues to exist. Not only Khamenei but also at least seven other top military and intelligence commanders of the regime were killed in the Israeli-led decapitation operation.
In a striking role reversal, the entire operation, which has been planned for months, appears to be led by Jerusalem, with Washington gleefully following the Israeli scenario. We are left wondering about the relationship between the USA and Israel to understand which one is a follower and which one is a leader.
But decapitating the regime is not enough to eliminate it. It will not save the Iranian people from these brutal atrocities, reverse its economic decline, or cut off its lifelines to Hamas and Hezbollah.
This is why Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are calling on the Iranian people to rise up against the government apparatus the Ayatollah left behind.
There is no doubt that most Iranians are fed up with the ruling regime. Not everyone may care about the oppression of women in Iran, but the entire population is suffering from high inflation and the inaccessibility of medicine and other basic needs.
Thousands of brave protesters lost their lives trying to change this. Just last month regime thugs killed nearly 30,000 protesters in two daysAccording to data leaked from the Iranian Ministry of Health Time magazine.
But last week we learned that Khamenei had foreseen the possibility of his own assassination by nominating a successor; appointed Ali Larijani, the man responsible for these shocking mass murders of peaceful protesters.
Moreover, the religious leader ordered all his subordinates to choose more than one successor.
In fact, as University of London expert Ali Hashem explains in an article for the magazine, the regime’s long-standing structure is designed to withstand precisely the kind of attacks carried out by the US and Israel Foreign policy.
The world has no doubt about Israel’s effectiveness in intelligence and covert operations. In fact, this is a conspicuous strength, reinforced by the recent success in Tehran. However, while he can attack enemy leaders, he lacks the power to replace them with his friends.
And the world does not doubt America’s ability to commit mass destruction from the air. In fact, this is a US specialty. But the United States certainly has a disastrous history of shaping the aftermath. Regime change efforts have always failed.
Therefore, if the death of the religious leader is to be followed by the death of the Islamic Republic, one or both of the following must occur.
First of all, the courage of the Iranian people must be tested once again during the mass uprising. Second, security services need to be broken up. Or both.
There is no credible evidence that Iran poses a current or near-term threat of nuclear explosion. After all, it was only last June that Trump gave assurances that US bombs had “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear facilities.
So unless the regime itself is eliminated, the death of the Ayatollah would be a spectacular tactic to support a failed strategy. In this case, Operation Epic Rage will look more like epic futility.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.
Peter Hartcher is the political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via email.
