Trump’s desperation shows as he demands Iran ‘open the f–kin’ strait’
Warning: This article contains strong language
Washington: Donald Trump started Easter Sunday like he starts most days, on social media.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day in Iran, all in one,” he wrote on his Truth Social account. “Nothing like this will happen! Open the damn Throat, you crazy bastards, or you’ll live in Hell – JUST WATCH!”
Then, to clarify, he added: “Praise be to God.”
This was an unorthodox message from a US president in prime times, let alone on one of the holiest days on the calendar; But it is clear that this is not an orthodox presidency.
We could go so far as to call this dishonorable. Of course, that won’t stop Republican faith leaders from coming to the White House the next time Trump declares that “religion is back” in America under his leadership.
That aside, the outburst speaks to a commander-in-chief who is shaky and increasingly cornered. The Venezuelan-style deal with a compliant subordinate failed to materialize, even after Trump extended his own deadline by 10 days. He will likely be forced to escalate an unpopular war that he would prefer to end.
We’ve seen this disappointment before; last June, when he said that neither side “didn’t know what they were doing” in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel. In this case, the ceasefire agreement he put together became obsolete.
Trump’s post does not give you the impression of someone holding the trigger calmly and steadily. First of all, last week he was saying that he did not care about the Strait of Hormuz, that it was the problem of other countries. This is his main demand today.
On the other hand, this is partly by design. When you’re the one with all the bombs, there’s a strategic advantage in being seen as dangerous and unpredictable and ramping up your rhetoric as the conceptual deadline approaches.
Ilan Goldenberg, a former Iran expert at the U.S. Department of Defense who is now vice president of the progressive pro-Israel think tank J Street, made a similar observation on Easter Sunday, but said Trump’s ploy no longer works.
Goldenberg said of
“Now Trump’s single move – more threats – brings less and less credibility each time. That’s how you trap yourself in escalation and quagmire.”
Raz Zimmt, another Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, said it was clear that Trump’s message was coming from a place of desperation rather than strength in Tehran. He said it was difficult to imagine that any country would bow to the demands of a leader who spoke like this.
“I don’t know if there is a breaking point for the Iranian regime or what it could be,” Zimmt told X. “It is clear that the Iranian leadership still assesses that its ability to withstand the next level of escalation, including attacks on critical infrastructure, is stronger than the ability of its neighbors and the global economy to absorb the expected consequences of such a move.”
Trump maintains that a deal is possible before the deadline and appears to have postponed it to 8pm on Tuesday (US time). It was originally set for Monday, April 6th.
A lot can happen in 48 hours and it could be that Iran allows a few more ships through the strait and the president promises enough that it will be “TACO”. After all, the kind of tension he envisions is not only strategically important but also morally dangerous.
But Iran does not appear to be on the verge of compromise.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament with whom the US must negotiate, responded by arguing that Trump’s recklessness was driving Americans into “living HELL” and threatened to burn down the entire region.
“Make no mistake: You have nothing to gain from war crimes,” he said.
Iran may view backing down as an existential situation, but it has authority and responsibility here. Trump has given fair warning about what he is prepared to unleash, and we know Israel will beg him to go ahead. Therefore, Iranians cannot say that they were not given the opportunity to prevent what happened next.
And if it’s true that Trump is desperate, then he must be desperate to make a deal. Tehran can benefit from this.
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political correspondent in Canberra.Connect with: X or email.
