Trump’s penalty threat puts India in a bind over Russian oil

India is wandering in a difficult balancing action after US President Donald Trump threatens Russian oil imports – a trade in which the new Delhi appears to be reluctant to end soon.

Although Trump told journalists on Friday, he heard that India had “heard” that he would stop purchases, the authorities in the new Delhi remained committed. Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said that the country has decided to the country’s energy import sources “at the price of oil in the international market and the global situation at that time.”

Consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group President Bob McNallly said CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”.

McNallly, “Now we walk around and ‘All this Russian oil?’ We say.

One month after Russia started the full-scale occupation of Ukraine in March 2022, a former National Security Advisor for the International Economy under the Biden’s Biden’s Biden Singh, Daleep Singh, Daleep Singh, reported “Friends do not put red lines” and “currently no prohibition of energy imports from Russia.”

“What we want to see is the rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia, energy or other exports prohibited by us or other aspects of the international sanction regime.” He said.

On July 30, Trump announced that India will face 25% tariff from August 1 with an “Punishment” that was not specified to buy Russian oil and military equipment.

However, analysts show that India, the world’s third largest energy consumers, has not been flashing for now. Reuters reported that India is not planned for long -term contracts with Russian suppliers and that two anonymous Indian government referred to the source of Indian government, which does not want to be defined due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Russia Oil supplier leading to India Since the war in Ukraine began, the day before the occupation, the day before the 100,000 barrels or 2.5% of the total imports rose to 1.8 million barrels per day or to 39% in 2023. According to the International Energy Agency, 70% of the Russian HAM It was exported to India in 2024.

Indian Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri defended the actions of the new Delhi in a July 10 interview with CNBC and said that it helped balance global prices and even encouraged by the USA

“People or countries had stopped buying at this stage, the price of oil would be up to 130 dollars. This was recommended to buy Russian oil, including our friends in the United States.”

Russian oil exports It was limited to $ 60 per barrel In December 2022, by the seven groups of countries representing the world’s best economies, the European Union reduced the price limit to $ 47 per barrel in July.

Nevertheless, the pressure is increasing. Mizuho Securities General Manager Vishnu Varathan said that US threats offer “an open and existing danger to India to India. The new Delhi said that this “Russia option” was likely not to commit in oil purchases because it evaluates the exchange of bargaining chips.

He added that India should clean the global market for comparable oil bargains, which is also the head of Macro research of Macro Research in Asia.

If a new Delhi can be negotiated from the United States – it can discover alternatives, including Iran, and “a few other producers who are suppressed by the United States in or outside the OPEC+, Var Varathan said.

OPEC+ BLOC agreed to increase the production of 547,000 barrels per day in September on Sunday, because concerns increased on potential supply deductions related to Russia.

Rapidan’dan McNall, India will face a difficult election, he said.

“Trump is serious. He was disappointed with Putin … India will have a difficult option, but it’s hard to see that they continue to import one and a half barrels [of] Russian crude oil Donald Trump really decides to put the entire relationship on the line. “