Trump’s shift from hostility to courting Brazil’s leftist leader

PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil — When President Trump returned to the White House last year, observers in Brazil expected immediate hostility toward leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated the far-right former president and MAGA ally Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

The expected clash with Trump came in July when he imposed a 40% tax on Brazilian exports, revoked the US visas of several public officials and then imposed sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court justice who presided over the case of Bolsonaro and his team.

Bolsonaro and others were accused of attempting a coup. Bolsonaro supporters entered government buildings in January 2023; Many in Brazil have experienced violence that has been likened to the storming of the US Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021.

Embers Condemned Bolsonaro’s investigation It was considered a witch hunt and people shouted on social media, “This case must end immediately!”

However, by November, the White House eased tariffs on major Brazilian exports such as beef and coffee, lifted sanctions against De Moraes in December, and began to signal its appreciation for Lula. It is now rumored that Trump and Lula will meet this year.

Observers say the shift in U.S.-Brazil relations comes as Brazil stands up to Trump on Bolsonaro and other issues, and because Brazil has something the United States wants: a large supply of rare earth minerals.

“Trump’s expectation was that Brazil would make an offer [regarding Bolsonaro] “There was no way Lula could ask the Supreme Court to stop prosecuting Bolsonaro,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of political science at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation’s School of International Relations in São Paulo.

Bolsonaro was convicted and is currently serving his sentence 27 years in prison in prison.

In addition to trying to bend Brazilian judges to his will on Bolsonaro, Trump has sought to prevent Brazil from imposing new regulations that would force big tech firms to stronger moderate content. This effort also failed.

Social media companies in Brazil can be fined if they do not comply with court orders since 2014. However, in July last year, the Supreme Court found that these companies had a “duty of care” regarding content that is considered a crime under Brazilian law. For example, they are now required to remove posts that promote racism, encourage suicide, or push for the overthrow of the government without prior request.

The Trump administration now hopes to gain access to Brazil’s rare earths, a class of minerals essential for high-tech products such as electric vehicles and hardware for artificial intelligence data centers. While Brazil has the world’s second largest reserves of these critical metals, China ranks first. US Geological Survey.

“At some point Trump realized Lula had more to offer him, including lowering grocery inflation [with a tariff lift]More than Bolsonaro, who has been arrested, convicted and lost political relevance in Brazil,” said Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington.

After speaking to Lula on the phone in December, Trump shared on his social media website that they had “paved the way for a very good long-term dialogue and agreement” and that “very good results will come from this newly established partnership.”

Much of the renewed goodwill toward Brazil stems from Trump’s aim to challenge China’s dominance of the world’s supply of rare earths. For 19 out of 20 strategic mineralsAccording to the International Energy Agency, the Asian country is the leading refiner with an average market share of 70%.

“More broadly, President Trump’s second term has clearly prioritized renewed relations with partners in the Western Hemisphere, both for security reasons and to counter Chinese influence in the region,” says Valentina Sader, director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center on Latin America.

On February 4, Vice President J.D. Vance announced an effort to create an alliance that would engage in the mining, processing and trading of rare earths. This included a $565 million loan to the company Serra Verde.
It is the only company mining rare earths in Brazil. The country’s large rare earth deposits remain largely unexplored due to a lack of capital and expertise.

A day after Vance launched the alliance, Lula told Brazilian news site UOL that he had arranged a visit to Washington soon. One of the topics on the agenda will be rare earth elements.

“One of the strategies we’ve seen in the Trump administration is to basically pose a big threat, impose high tariffs, and then see what the other side is willing to give up and offer,” Stuenkel said. “It actually worked in some cases, but it didn’t work because Brazil was no longer dependent on the United States.”

As for tariffs, some were dropped in November after it became clear that they targeted certain products that are essential to Americans’ daily lives, such as coffee. Then, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision invalidating Trump’s tariffs, the president introduced a new global 15% import tax with a few product and industry exceptions such as beef and pharmaceuticals. But the outcome still benefits the Brazilians.

New executive order represented 13.6% decrease in general tariffs This makes Brazil the biggest beneficiary of the policy change, according to Global Trade Alert, a nonprofit platform that tracks policy changes in global trade.

The White House still has a 40% tariff on Brazilian steel and aluminum products, but the Supreme Court’s decision represents relief of more than $21 billion in Brazilian exports to the United States, according to the country’s National Confederation of Industries.

People wearing masks depicting President Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro attend a protest in São Paulo on July 18, 2025.

(Nelson Almeida / AFP/Getty Images)

The Trump administration has aimed to counter China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, but many countries in South America are no longer willing to boldly distance themselves from China, which became the continent’s largest trading partner in the 2010s.

In fact, Trump’s insistence that the United States has influence in “its own hemisphere” could actually strengthen Beijing’s presence in Latin America, Stuenkel said.

“Even Milei, who signed a trade agreement with the United States, has no intention of significantly reducing economic ties with China, which is extremely important for the Argentine economy,” Stuenkel said, referring to Argentina’s far-right president and Trump ally Javier Milei.

In Brazil’s case, there is also a long-standing diplomatic tradition of non-alignment with the world’s major powers. The country exports to both the US and China; Mostly steel, fuel and aviation products are exported to the Americans, and mostly soybeans, iron ore and crude oil to the Chinese.

Santos said, “It will not be possible for Brazil to choose between the United States and China.” “It could push the Brazilian industry to break up, with one serving the American market and the other serving the Chinese market.”

Nakamura is a special correspondent for The Times under the auspices of the International Center for Journalists.