Trump’s threats to Nato reveal glaring absence of any strategy on Iran | US-Israel war on Iran
If ever there was a moment when it became clear that the United States had no strategy towards Iran, this is it. Donald Trump on Saturday demanded that Britain, China, France, Japan and others join the naval escort for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the White House launched the attack on Iran alongside Israel, it does not appear to have fully foreseen what would come next. Iran had few good military options to respond, but attacking US bases, US allies, and merchant shipping in the Gulf was the most obvious response; Trying to impose costs on the West.
Iran was bracing for a long period of resistance, with former supreme leader Ali Khamenei pressuring his subordinates to establish a four-phase succession with the expectation that he and others could be killed.
The US has so far focused on Iran’s navy and missile sites in its two-week bombing war. However, this failed to eliminate the asymmetric threat to vulnerable commercial ships. According to Lloyd’s List magazine, 16 people were attacked and tankers do not want to risk the journey through the Bosphorus.
Ten days ago, Trump called on tanker owners to “show some courage” and make the crossing, even though the US Navy appeared reluctant to do so. “The US didn’t do this because the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group could sit 200km off Oman and strike Iran with little risk,” said Matthew Savill, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested last week that the US Navy could be in a position to escort tankers “by the end of this month” after more airstrikes.
Iran theoretically has a range of small-scale strike options, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard speedboats, aerial drones and up to 5,000 naval mines (though these do not appear to have yet been deployed, despite repeated speculation in the US media).
But reflecting lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, indications are that Iran has been most successful in attacks with maritime drones — uncrewed surface ships that resemble speedboats. as shown in this video). It may have hit the Mayuree Naree ship from Thailand last week.
Focused on military power, Trump had no desire to work with any country other than Israel, and neither wanted to participate in starting a war against Iran. As a result, the naval preparedness of US allies before the start of the war was non-existent. Britain, France, China and Japan all had warships ready to undertake convoy duties.
According to Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, eight to 10 destroyers might be required to make any escort operation feasible, but this would only be sufficient to protect “five to 10 ships transiting every day and a half.” This amounts to approximately 10% of pre-war shipping volume.
At the same time, there was a muted response to Trump’s call for help. Japan, where international military deployments are legally complex, said it had not yet received a formal request from the United States. China’s failure to respond to the objection makes it possible for Trump to respond by postponing his visit to Beijing until the end of the month.
NATO allies should feel obliged to take part in this action, the US president said in an interview over the weekend. “Now we will see whether they will help us,” he told the Financial Times, warning that the alliance would have a “very bad future” if they did not. The threat comes despite NATO covering only Europe and North America, and despite more than a year of intense messaging from the United States that Europe should focus on defending its own continent, not the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific or elsewhere.
France sent eight warships to the Eastern Mediterranean but said it was not ready to go to Hormuz until the “most intense” fighting was over. Britain had difficulty preparing a destroyer and was forced to take HMS Dragon out of dry dock for Cyprus.
Britain was criticized for failing to anticipate the need for a warship in the region while the US formed two carrier strike groups. But the Royal Navy has been focused on deploying the aircraft carrier Prince of Wales to the North Atlantic later this year as part of the Arctic protection mission requested by Trump while pursuing Greenland.
