Trump’s Vietnam pact targets China, raises more questions than answers
On June 21, 2025, Thai Son SP Co.
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US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam on Wednesday, but he wondered what it would mean for the flow of Chinese goods whose inadequate details were re -directed through economists through the country.
Trump said that on Wednesday, there would be a 40% “transfer” tariff on the goods coming from Vietnam, a 20% tariff and another country, which was transferred to Vietnam for the last shipment to the United States.
Using Chinese manufacturers as a major transfer center of Vietnam, they used Transhipping to eliminate heavy tariffs directly to the United States to the United States.
White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro claimed that about one -third of Vietnam’s exports were re -directed from China, and in an interview with Fox News in April, he described Vietnam as “actually communist Chinese colony”.
Miami University Supply Chain Management Associate Professor Yao Jin said the last agreement was a significant strike against such re -sent from China.
However, it will be a difficult task for Hanoi, which will be described as “made in Vietnam” and will have to define the scope of what creates the transfer.
HSBC Bank Chief Asian economist Frederic Neumann, CNBC said in a statement on Friday, “only for pure transfers – from China to the United States through Vietnam ports, the goods sent without any local assembly – Vietnam should not have any effect on Vietnam.” He said.
However, the 40% tariff said, “If it is even applied to the minimum share of Chinese components for all Vietnam goods, disruptions may be important,” Neumann said.
Similarly, Dan Wang, the Chinese Director of Avrasia Group, said, “It is uncertain how this will work – probably falls to Hanoi on the issuance of origin rules – and if it is metric, the level of Chinese components will be accepted too much.”
As more Chinese manufacturers have moved their production to Vietnam since the first period of Trump, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States has doubled up to $ 123.5 billion in 2018, less than $ 40 billion in 2018. According to the US census office.
Template for others?
The agreement made Vietnam the last country to provide some trade assistance from Trump after England and China, and said it would probably serve as an important reference in ongoing trade negotiations for other Southeast Asian countries.
Many countries are competing to reach trade agreements with the US before the end of the 90 -day pause time on 9 July, when Trump is preparing to enter into force of “mutual” tariffs.
There were many Southeast Asian countries In the first period of Trump, he benefited from the last US-China trade war by serving as alternative production and export centers.
Ing’s chief economist Lynn Song said that a country will be determined by its own decision about the exposure of a country to US and Chinese markets, the level of transfer activity in that country and its effects for local industries.
This year, shipments from China to many Southeast Asian countries rose to a record level, China Customs Data Shown– Exporters send them to alternative markets to sell to local markets or
If Vietnam and British trade agreements are any indicator, the US’s future agreements with other countries will include measures for the increasing purchasing commitments of the US goods and “provisions aiming to put pressure on China”.
Strict security requirements for steel and drugs in the US-England agreement are seen as an attempt to remove China from the British supply chain.
China is firing
China has returned against the US-Vietnam trade agreement on Thursday because of concerns that the Trump administration would use tariff negotiations with third countries to prevent export.
He said the country’s Ministry of Commerce was on Thursday. “Making an assessment” The agreement invites other countries not to look for an agreement with Washington at the expense of China’s interests.
China will probably use Washington’s “mutual tariff negotiations to try to bore China from the supply chains of third countries”. Beijing expects countries not to participate in US demands and not to return to this practice with Washington.
However, Beijing will avoid any concrete action until the details of the agreement are clarified, while waiting to see how the trade agreements of other countries are shaped.
“It would be mindless to turn the table on a single Vietnam trade agreement.” He said.
In May, the United States and China have recently marched a series of restrictive measures against each other in honor of the trade consensus in Geneva, Switzerland. Since then, Washington has removed export restrictions on meat, chip design software and jet motor parts, while Beijing has been set to rapid approval for rapid approval for Rare Earths exports.
Both sides reached a trade framework that remained in force until mid -August after the talks in London last month, and Chinese goods were currently confronted with 55%tariffs.
According to Nick Marro, the Chief Economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit, the US-Vietnam agreement implies that the lower tasks of direct shipment from China can encourage firms to shift production there, but also implies that it is not possible to fall below 40% of the final tariffs on Chinese goods.
