Tuesday briefing: With the horror of conflict throughout the globe, how likely is world war three? | Defence policy
Good morning. The world is at war. From the trenches of eastern Ukraine to the missile-filled skies of the Gulf, a growing portion of humanity lives under the terror of conflict. For some observers, there are gnawing fears that the worst is yet to come. The apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, the irrelevance of the institutions designed to sustain it, and the interconnectedness of wars. led to warnings that we may be at the beginning of the third world war. In fact, half of Britons A recent YouGov poll conducted The survey thought the third world war was likely within the next five to 10 years.
On Monday, Donald Trump stepped back from deepening the US and Israel’s war with Iran and announced that he would postpone military attacks on Iran’s power plants for five days after “very good and productive talks” on ending the war. Iran denied this version of events and claimed that it was afraid of Trump’s threats to attack water infrastructure in the Gulf. But despite the calming of stock markets and the sharp decline in oil prices, there is little sign that the fight is over.
For this morning’s First Edition, I asked the Guardian’s diplomatic editor: Patrick Wintourabout the credibility of claims that we are drifting towards the third major global conflict in just over a century. First, the headlines.
five big stories
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Middle East | The Israeli military said it launched a new wave of attacks on Tehran after Donald Trump signaled a pause in US attacks on its energy infrastructure following productive talks with Iran.
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UK Politics | While Keir Starmer suggested that the energy price shock caused by the Iran conflict could continue in the coming months, he said ministers were considering providing support for household bills next winter.
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London | Security agencies are investigating whether an Iran-linked group was behind an arson attack on four ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in north London.
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climate crisis | Analysis shows that if the world warms by 2 degrees, more countries will face critical food insecurity.
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new York | The pilot and co-pilot of an Air Canada Express regional jet were killed when it collided with a fire truck while landing at New York’s LaGuardia airport.
In depth: ‘Conflicts are inextricably linked’
A terrifying question to ponder: Are we on the outskirts of a third world war? Patrick Wintour says Fiona Hill, President Trump’s former Russia adviser, is one of the loudest voices arguing that we are. He implores us all to recognize the seriousness of the situation, noting the scale and interconnectedness of current conflicts.
“So many parts of the world are in conflict. The Middle East, Europe and China are all in conflict, not all of them military. Sometimes it’s diplomatic, sometimes it’s a kind of shadow war, sometimes it’s cyber. I think we’re in a series of interconnected conflicts right now,” Patrick says. “Let’s take an illustrative example. The Russians offered to stop providing intelligence or military assistance to Iran if, in return, the Americans forced Ukraine to make concessions on territorial issues. The conflicts are inextricably linked here.”
One of the main drivers of global instability, Patrick says, is the collapse of Pax Americana, the term for the long post-World War II period in which large-scale conflicts waged by U.S. power diminished. Under the Trump administration, the United States abandoned its position of maintaining a rules-based international order through alliances and organizations such as the UN, leading to a rapid global realignment. In many parts of the world, the consequences of America’s retreat from this system—however flawed—has been brutal.
“No one can fully understand what America is because of the lack of stability and predictability that underpins Pax Americana. There was an alliance between nations and they had a common view of how the world should be run. Now that is gone and America acts alone,” says Patrick. “The United States also has a hard time accepting the fact that in the past, when they said ‘jump’, Europe would jump. This is not the case anymore, because the struggle to become more independent from America continues in Europe.”
Patrick tells me that for the global south, western hypocrisy (perceived or perceived) is an important diplomatic issue as they try to forge common positions to stop the fighting. There is a perception that the West cannot apply the same moral standards to conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflicts in Israel and Palestine.
“The argument for the global south will be that they are expected to show endless support for Ukraine against Russia. But Europe is very quiet about what Israel is doing in Palestine, and frankly the global south feels that very strongly. This is also reflected in the global south’s relationship with Europe,” he adds.
‘A multi-dimensional war scenario’
According to Patrick, the threshold of the third major global war has not yet been met. China’s opportunistic invasion of Taiwan would change this. But he says that doesn’t seem likely, at least in the short term.
“What everyone is looking at is whether China sees an opportunity with America [being] He gets distracted and heads to Taiwan. The Chinese insist that’s not the case, and they certainly won’t do it for a year or two, but it must be tempting for people in the Chinese government if they intend to recapture Taiwan. “This might be a good moment to do that because America is extremely overstretched and is also led by an incredibly unpopular leader,” he says. “We could spiral into a world war that way, but I don’t think that’s what China would actually do. “I think we are in a multi-dimensional war scenario and we will remain so for a long time.”
Military preparedness vs reality
I finish by asking Patrick whether the UK would be prepared for such a conflict. At Davos earlier this year, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney called on mid-sized powers to forge alliances that can work together in a world where the US and China are increasingly competitive, warning: “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”
Patrick says it depends on what kind of war we’re talking about. “We are moving very slowly to rebuild our military power. We are still strong in reputation. We still have a very good officer class. But real weapons and the number of people to fight are limited.
“There was a belief in Europe that we could spend more on welfare and less on defence. I’m afraid that must now change. It will be very painful, but I think it will be a necessity. It will also require the UK to think more about its relationship with Europe. You don’t have to reverse Brexit, but you will have to accept that Europe, not America, is our future.”
What else did we read?
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This week’s pet peeve I’ll never forget – a show that never disappoints – Harriet the HedgehogHe went to live in Roger Leitch’s airing cupboard. Martin Belam
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chinamaxxing (pictured above) has been one of the biggest social media trends of the past year; The influencers were celebrating Chinese traditions by drinking hot water, wearing slippers around the house, using chopsticks, and eating Chinese food. Read Isabella Lee’s post about what she hopes will stay in social media fashion. Patrick
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Fotohane Dark Room is a space for children in Mardin, a Turkish city on the border of Syria and Iraq, to learn to shoot, develop and print their own films. analog photosgiving them the chance to tell their own stories, Flora Medina reports for iD magazine. Martin
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While immigration enforcement crackdowns have made international headlines in the US, the recent crackdown in the UK has gone largely unnoticed. Sammy Gecsoyler investigates huge increases immigration raids It has been in businesses since Labor came to power. Patrick
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Hartlepool hit the headlines for saying there was too much dancing, but here Anne Karpf argues with the help of a lovely anecdote about children dancing: memorial benches preserve the dead part of the flow of daily life. Martin
Sport
Cricket | The England Wales Cricket Board says it will stand by director of cricket Rob Key and multi-format head coach Brendon McCullum despite the men’s team’s humiliating Ashes tour.
Football | Ben White has been recalled by Thomas Tuchel for England’s friendlies against Uruguay and Japan, ending his partly self-imposed exile. Tuchel also called on Harvey Barnes, whom he hopes to attract into Scotland’s World Cup squad.
Football | UEFA rejected the demands of English clubs to increase the number of squads in the Champions League to 28 next season, following the reaction of clubs in Spain.
front pages
“Trump called off the strike over claims of ‘productive’ talks with Tehran” Guard vault. “Embers: The phrase “I will rule the Bosphorus with the Ayatollah” was the most talked about topic. Telegram, F.T. “Trump announced a diplomatic end to the war” and Mirror “It’s not over,” he says. Mail “Trump winks first” headlines and Times “Trump: I bet I can reach a deal with Iran,” he says. I Paper “Britain is investigating Iran’s possible connection with arson attacks on Jewish ambulances,” he said in a statement. Sun “Barmy Beeb banned Bob,” he says, referring to Bob Monkhouse.
In Focus Today
Israel’s second front: On the field in Lebanon
Conflicts in the Middle East are fought from the air, except for southern Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah are waging a fierce ground war. Will it be Christou? reports.
Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi
positive side
A bit of good news to remind you that the world isn’t that bad
Deep inside Cambodia’s limestone caves, scientists have uncovered a hidden world of life, including never-before-seen species. A team led by international wildlife conservation charity Fauna & Flora, which explored more than 60 caves across 10 hills in Battambang, found “a wide variety of wildlife” thriving in karst landscapes of sinkholes, springs and caves. Among the discoveries: a “spectacular new species of pit viper” (pictured above) and scores of new lizards, including a “nightcrawler” spotted only in this habitat. The findings suggest that many more species have yet to be uncovered. The work, done in one of the planet’s most fragile ecosystems, is a reminder that extraordinary new discoveries still lie in wait in the dark.
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