How the ousting of Russia’s ally Maduro benefits Moscow
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the Moscow Kremlin.
Mikhail Metzel | TASS |Getty Images
Russia had a cautious reaction to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro; Moscow considered the potential geopolitical benefits and opportunities of unilateral US action against the loss of an important regional ally in Latin America.
Moscow initially condemned the US strikes on Venezuela on Saturday and the subsequent capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the USA “aggressive acts” He said they “constitute an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state.” However, neither the Kremlin nor Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued an official response to this dismissal.
Maduro was an ally of President Putin, and Venezuela has long-standing ties with Russia; Caracas supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and in addition to deep energy ties and military cooperation, both countries had a common interest in countering US geopolitical, military and economic influence in the region.
Still, Maduro’s removal isn’t all bad news for Russia, and Moscow will likely be looking for ways to exploit the crisis in Venezuela.
Ukraine is a distraction
First of all, the Venezuela crisis coincides with a sensitive period in Moscow’s relations with Washington. He will likely be wary of burning bridges with the White House at a time when he is trying to curry favor with the administration to get the most favorable terms from a potential Ukraine peace deal.
But events in Venezuela provide a welcome distraction on this front; Russia is benefiting from the easing of pressure or efforts to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine or a ceasefire as part of any agreement.
While Russian forces appear to have an advantage on the battlefield, especially in terms of manpower, and are making increasing progress in eastern Ukraine, a ceasefire does not appear to be in Russia’s interest.
“The Kremlin’s response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela has been stereotypical so far,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Sunday, adding that the Kremlin “will likely have to balance its response between preserving its credibility as a partner to other states and its ongoing efforts to meet the needs of the Trump administration.”
Danger for Zelenskyy?
Analysts have also expressed concern that Trump’s capture of Maduro and the charges against him could give Russia carte blanche to do the same to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom Moscow has frequently described as a “criminal,” without providing evidence to support his accusations.
“HE [Trump] “He gives Putin permission to go as far as he wants with Zelenskyy,” Sarah Lenti, a political consultant and former director of the White House National Security Council, told CNBC on Monday.
“The president said Maduro is a criminal, so he has the right to be punished.” [and] catch him. And we know that President Putin often falsely calls Zelenskyy a criminal. And so it sets a precedent and says it’s okay for countries to challenge the political sovereignty of another nation,” he said in a comment on CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition.”
“I think this sets a very bad precedent for countries that China and Russia want to violate, whether it’s Taiwan or Ukraine,” Lenti added.
Ideological support?
On an ideological level, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and the foreign policy stance that supports it – his desire to reassert US power and dominance in the Western Hemisphere – are aligned with Russia.
Putin is also widely seen as wanting to restore Russia’s sphere of influence in Europe and Central Asia, which was lost following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The “greatest geopolitical disaster” of the 20th century.
There is speculation that Trump’s focus on restoring American hegemony in the West could allow Russia to do the same in its own backyard. However, several analysts commented to CNBC that the US intervention in Venezuela shows countries like Russia and Iran that Trump is ready to take action if it is deemed to be in the interests of the US.
“What they’re doing in Venezuela will certainly be seen and heard very clearly in Iran and Russia,” Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC on Monday.
“Whether it’s in terms of the need to take Trump seriously, or when he says, ‘I’m going to do
Meanwhile, BCA Research strategist Marko Papic argued that Russia does not have bargaining power with the United States when it comes to allies such as Venezuela.
“If the United States liberates its sphere of influence, can other great powers also liberate their sphere of influence? The answer is ‘no’. Russia had nothing to give America in Venezuela… There was no need for any negotiation between Russia and the United States [as] “The United States exercises free rein in the Western hemisphere,” he said.
Loss of an ally
Analysts emphasize that Maduro’s ouster would not be actively welcomed in Moscow, as it removes an important ally and a bulwark against US influence and ambitions in Latin America.
“With Maduro’s ouster, another Russian client state has wreaked havoc, reducing the value of the Kremlin’s security guarantee to just below zero,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Insight, said in an analysis Monday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro shake hands during a ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 2, 2013.
Maxim Shemetov | AFP | Getty Images
“What made matters worse for the Kremlin was that the US operation effortlessly cut through the much-vaunted Russian S-300 air defense systems installed in Venezuela after failing to provide air cover in Syria and Iran,” he said.
