U.S. Intelligence Says Iran Government Is Not At Risk Of Collapse, Say Sources

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and is not at risk of collapsing anytime soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

One of the sources, who was granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings, said “numerous” intelligence reports “provide consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger of collapse” and “retains control of Iranian public opinion.”

The final report was completed in the last few days, the source said.

As political pressure mounts over rising oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested the United States will “soon” end its largest military operation since 2003. But if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly in place, finding an acceptable end to the war may be difficult.

Intelligence reports underscore the cohesion of Iran’s religious leaders despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of US and Israeli attacks.

A senior Israeli official told Reuters that in closed talks, Israeli officials acknowledged there was no certainty that the war would lead to the collapse of the religious government.

Sources emphasized that the situation on the ground is fluid and the dynamics in Iran may change.

The Directorate of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Since launching their war, the United States and Israel have struck a number of Iranian targets, including air defense systems, nuclear facilities and members of senior leaders.

The Trump administration put forward different justifications for the reasons for the war. Trump called on the Iranians to “take over your government” when announcing the launch of the US operation, but his top aides have since denied the aim was to overthrow Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the attacks also killed dozens of senior officials and some top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls much of the economy.

Still, U.S. intelligence reports show that the Revolutionary Guard and interim leaders who came to power after Khamenei’s death remain in control of the country. The Assembly of Experts, consisting of senior Shiite clerics, announced Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the new religious leader earlier this week.

A fourth source familiar with the matter said Israel had no intention of allowing what remained of the former government to remain intact.

It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military operation will overthrow the government.

This would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people in Iran to safely protest in the streets, the source said.

The Trump administration is not ruling out sending US troops to Iran.

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq were consulting with the United States on how and whether to attack Iranian security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an attack could put pressure on Iran’s security services, leading Iranians to revolt against the government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the Iranian Kurdistan Komala Party, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview Wednesday that the parties are highly organized in Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms against the government” if they receive U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he had received reports from within Iranian Kurdistan that Revolutionary Guard troops and other security forces were abandoning bases and barracks for fear of U.S. and Israeli attacks.

“We see concrete signs of weakness in the Kurdish regions,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish groups to fight back against Iran’s security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

Intelligence indicates the groups are lacking in firepower and numbers.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where Iranian Kurdish groups are located, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Another person familiar with the matter said Iranian Kurdish groups have asked senior officials and U.S. lawmakers in Washington in recent days for the United States to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he did not allow Iranian Kurdish groups to go to Iran.

(Reporting by Erin Banco in New York and Jonathan Landay in Washington; Editing by Don Durfee and Matthew Lewis)