UBS recession risk 2025: Recession alert! UBS puts US at 93% risk as economy slips into soggy territory
UBS said that the signal has reached “historically anxious levels ve and pointed to the registry of identifying stagnation turning points in the past. A large red flag is the reverse yield curve showing stress in bond markets. Currently, 23% is turned upside down, fixed for months, but sharply higher than the beginning of 2025. The UBS also stressed stress in the credit markets and said that the possibility of stagnation consisting of credit metrics has almost doubled since January, as reported by Fortune.
US economy Slows Signs
Fortune reported that many analysts reiterated the warning of UBS in 2025 and saw signs of stagnation. Although the UBS announced that the data may seem weak, it is more like “a mile -width, inch weakness, and that the economy is cumbersome and soft, but it has not yet collapsed. After a short improvement at the end of 2024, the harsh data fell negative again in February 2025 and remained weak since May and showed a sharp decline instead of a stagnation.
UBS stressed that none of the major economic indicators, such as work or production, often under the trend that took place just before the past stagnation. The US economy is stuck in slow growth or slightly contraction, not a sudden collapse. According to Fortune’s report, analysts warn that it may mean that it means low growth with increasing inflation, similar to the 1970s.
Risk of recession and expert warnings
Despite a 93 % risk signal, UBS does not formally foresee a stagnation. Instead, “cumbersome growth” awaits with improvement in 2025 in 2025. In January, UBS received the average of all signals such as fixed data, yield curve and credit stress to obtain a possibility of a general recession of 52% in January. This level is usually linked to stagnation in history.
The UBS warned that the economy is at the “stop speed”, especially the July Jobs report shows very weak recruitment and creating doubts about stability. Other experts, Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics, warned that the US is on the edge of the stagnation, as stated in Fortune.Zandi’s report, similar to weak job data and past recesses, reference to downward revisions.Zandi, the biggest danger will come in the winter of 2025-2026. The authority added that the states that make up one -third of the US GDP are already in stagnation or close to it, adding that only one third of the economy has grown until the end of August. In general, UBS and other economists say that the US economy is weaker than a soft landing, but it has not yet completely collapsed, and according to the Fortune report, it has left 2025 on a knife.
FAQ
Quarter. What risk of recession for the US in UBS 2025?
UBS said the US has a 93% risk of stagnation based on fixed data such as work, income and production between May – July 2025.
S2. Does UBS estimate the US stagnation in 2025?
No, the UBS does not officially foresee a recession, but in 2025, cumbersome growth awaits with possible improvement in 2026.
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