UK food prices could spike as fertiliser supplies at risk due to Iran war
Donald Trump’s war on Iran could lead to rising food prices in the UK due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs, as the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage to the south of Iran, is effectively impassable.
The blockade on fossil fuels through the strait is causing a rise in the cost of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers used to grow grain and vegetables, and means farms now face the double threat of higher fuel prices for fertilizer and machinery as the conflict in Iran disrupts global supply chains.
The price of urea, which is nitrogenous fertilizer, last month rose It increased by 33.7 percent and 54.9 percent compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, some fertilizer factories in the Middle East were closed due to their inability to obtain the materials required for fertilizer production. Natural gas accounts for 60-80 percent of the costs associated with the production of nitrogenous fertilizers. According to NFU.
As prices increase, the wages demanded by farmers should also increase. Richard Heady, who farms 700 acres of land in Buckinghamshire, He told The Telegraph: “fertilizer prices have increased, but the truth is we need it.” He said he would have to raise the price of a tonne of grain after harvest from £170 to £220 (a 30 per cent increase) to cover his costs.
Without fertilizer, farmers will face soil nutrient shortages that threaten low-yield harvests.
Approximately 30-35 percent of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer supply passes through the Strait, and approximately 40-45 percent of sulfur exports come from the Gulf; This underlines how open the market is to regional turmoil.
Major producers such as Qatar Fertilizer Company, Saudi Arabia’s Sabic and the UAE’s Fertiglobe often play a key role in keeping global supply moving, ensuring that sudden disruption in the region is quickly felt in agricultural activities far beyond the Middle East.
NFU chief executive Tom Bradshaw said he met with Defra Secretary of State Emma Reynolds this week to outline “how volatility in the global energy market is having a huge impact on our food supply chains here” and that the government was “monitoring this very closely”.
“It’s clear that transparency and fairness in fuel and fertilizer prices are critical, and we’ve been calling for this for a long time despite market volatility. This is especially urgent as farmers and ranchers are busy getting crops out of the ground and boosting grass growth ahead of spring grazing,” he added.
Oxford Economics was warned last week It is stated that increasing oil prices will increase farmers’ transportation costs, directly affect the prices of basic foodstuffs such as rice and wheat, and high oil and fertilizer costs will turn into more expensive foods globally.
The firm currently expects world food prices to rise about 2 percent this year; That’s a jump from February’s forecast of less than 1 percent.
“As a result of the increase in natural gas prices and the importance of the Bosphorus for the fertilizer trade, we increased our fertilizer price forecast for the second quarter of 2026 by approximately 20 percent,” Oxford Economics said. “Risks are to the upside due to the real risk of disruption to production in the region and trade across the strait,” he said.
A UK government spokesman said: Independent: “We understand and take seriously the potential impacts of the Iran war on the food and agriculture industry.
“We have engaged with the NFU and are bringing together wider farmer stakeholders to continue gathering information on the impacts of conflict on the sector.”
They added: “We do not currently expect any impact on food availability to consumers and continue to monitor increases in fertilizer and oil prices, reading for action to protect rural communities.”
On Friday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced ridicule after saying the Strait of Hormuz was “open” and there was “no need to worry” about attacks, although several ships have been attacked in recent days.
“The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that,” he said during a press conference.
In his first statement this week as Iran’s new religious leader, Mojtaba Khamenei promised to keep the strait closed in retaliation for ongoing US-Israeli attacks on his country.
The USA, on the other hand, does not signal to stop its action against Iran. “The United States is destroying the military of the radical Iranian regime in a way the world has never seen before,” Hegseth boasted at a Friday morning press conference. “We said it wouldn’t be a fair fight, but it wasn’t,” he said.
Independent Defra has been contacted for comment.
