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Families in high-immigration areas TWICE as likely to gain from Reeves axing the two-child benefit cap: Interactive map shows how Labour will reward big families in hotspots like Luton and Tower Hamlets

The Daily Mail’s analysis of official data suggests families in high-immigration areas could benefit almost twice as much from removing the two-child allowance limit.

In municipal areas with high levels of immigration, 2.2 percent of households will benefit from the policy change, while in areas with the lowest levels of immigration, this rate is only 1.2 percent.

Local authorities with the largest expat populations, such as Barking and Dagenham, Luton and Newham, will see up to 4 per cent of households benefit from Labour’s removal of the two-child benefit cap.

Robert Bates, director of research at the Immigration Control Centre, told the Daily Mail it was ‘yet another attack on citizens playing by the rules and a handout to high-migration areas’.

The data shows that around 4.2 per cent (3,400 out of 82,000) of households in the east London boroughs of Barking and Dagenham should see their benefits top up as they may soon be able to claim benefits for more of their children (the most of council areas in the UK).

According to the 2021 Census, more than 41 per cent of the borough’s residents were born outside the UK; this is the 16th highest number in the UK.

Similarly, 3.8 per cent of households in Luton and 3.4 per cent of households in Brent (where 38 per cent and 54 per cent of residents respectively are foreign nationals) will receive relief support.

What is the two child benefit limit?

Despite its name, the ceiling has nothing to do with Child Benefit. It actually relates to Universal Credit and child tax credits.

This ensures that parents can only claim benefits or tax credits for their first two children.

The rule applies to third or subsequent children born after April 6, 2017.

However, this rule did not apply to multiple births, such as twins or children born as a result of rape or coercive intercourse.

But London’s wealthier boroughs with high proportions of foreign-born residents are defying this trend. Kensington and Chelsea (54 per cent), Westminster (56 per cent) and the City of London (50 per cent) are among those least likely to benefit from this change.

It is not possible to say with certainty that families seeking more assistance in these areas are immigrants, as correlation does not always mean causation and other factors may apply.

Mr Bates added: ‘There is no moral, financial or political justification for spending tens of billions of pounds each year on asylum costs, foreign aid and migrant benefits.

‘This is especially true at a time when British citizens are at breaking point and our country is in an accelerating cycle of doom.

‘Tax cuts are needed to boost fertility and young Brits need to feel the country is worth reviving.

‘Immigration has sunk the housing market, attacked productivity and undermined early-stage business opportunities; All of this makes it much more difficult for young people to start a family.’

The 2022 Children’s Commissioner report found that 38 per cent of Bangladeshi families and 41 per cent of Pakistani families have three or more children, compared to just 14 per cent of White British families.

The latest child poverty figures show almost half of children in black and Asian communities are in relative child poverty, compared to just a quarter of white children.

The £3bn cost of removing the two-child limit will be covered by part of the £30bn tax rises the Chancellor announced in the budget this week

Labor MPs fear the inequality between who benefits from the policy could become a ‘political flashpoint’. F.T. reports.

Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch has branded Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget ‘Benefits Street’, unlike hard-working British families.

The £3bn cost of removing the two-child limit will be covered by some of the £30bn tax rises it has announced.

The benefit cap means tested benefits such as Universal Credit and child tax credit payments for the first two children, costing affected families a typical £3,455 in lost benefits for each additional child.

Figures produced by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show 470,000 families are currently affected by the policy.

About 59 percent have at least one adult working, leaving almost 200,000 people with no one working.

Rachel Reeves puts the finishing touches on her tax increase budget earlier this week

Rachel Reeves puts the finishing touches on her tax increase budget earlier this week

Almost two-thirds (297,000) have three children, while a quarter (117,000) have four children. Another 37,000 affected families have five children, while 18,260 have ‘six or more’ families.

Latest statistics show 72,600 of those affected by the cap are in London. Of this, 4,580 in Newham, 4,490 in Tower Hamlets and 3,710 in Hackney.

There were currently 17,990 people under restriction in Birmingham and 7,800 in Manchester. The level for Bradford was 8,020.

Currently, a single parent with three children is entitled to a total benefit of £20,978.

However, once the cap is removed this figure could rise to £24,491; This is well above the £21,807 take-home pay of someone working 40 hours a week on minimum wage.

The government’s independent spending watchdog said abandoning the policy would result in child poverty falling by an estimated 450,000 by 2029/30.

The government was under increasing pressure from many of its own Labor MPs, as well as anti-poverty campaigners, to end a policy introduced under the Conservatives.

The two-child limit, first announced by the Conservatives in 2015 and introduced in 2017, limits child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.

When the policy was introduced by George Osborne, he said benefit families should face ‘the same financial choices’ as working families when deciding whether to have more children.

But research shows that this policy has only a small impact on people deciding to have more than two children.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the rise in child poverty is ‘driven entirely by a large increase in relative poverty among families with three or more children’.

In 2023-24, the proportion of children growing up in relative poverty in a household with three or more children was almost 44 percent.

But by comparison, the poverty rate for households with two children was 25 percent, while the rate for households with one child was only 21 percent.

Child poverty statistics have not been helped by the fact that the number of children living in large households has increased by almost a third since 2017, from 3.8 million to just under 5 million.

This may be due to increased immigration, particularly of people moving to the UK from outside the EU.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has voted to increase taxes by £30bn on budget day, blaming the Conservatives, Brexit and Donald Trump’s tariffs for throwing the economy off course.

Scrapping the hat with two children This works out to more than £14,000 a year for each of 18,000 low-income families with six or more children.

The move comes after a study by the Adam Smith Institute found that almost £2,000 of average income earners’ taxes will be diverted towards Britain’s spiraling benefits bill this year.

Critics of the cap claim it worsens child poverty and eliminating it has become an article of faith for many Labor MPs. But the potential increase in benefits is so large that some may have little incentive to work.

Government sources emphasize that eligibility for Universal Credit depends on immigration status and residence requirements, not nationality, and removing the cap does not change existing eligibility rules.

As part of Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms, migrants in need of benefits will face a 20-year settlement waiting period; This is four times the current period and the longest in Europe.

A Government spokesman said: ‘Nine out of ten children affected by the two-child limit have a UK-born parent.

‘With almost three-quarters of children in poverty living in working households, this government is determined to give 550,000 children a better start in life.’

Timeline of the two-child benefit limit

July 2015: The two-child benefit limit was announced by the Conservatives as part of David Cameron and George Osborne’s austerity programme.

April 2017: The cover comes into effect.

February 2020: Sir Keir Starmer called for the title to be removed during his campaign to become Labor leader.

2019: Labor has promised to lift the cap under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

July 2023: Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer says his party will not change the border. He faces backlash from the left of his party.

June 2024: The cap is becoming a hotly debated issue as the 2024 elections approach. Labour’s government manifesto says the party will ‘develop an ambitious strategy to reduce child poverty’ but does not specifically mention the two-child limit.

July 23, 2024: Labor has sacked seven rebel MPs who voted against the government to support the Scottish National Party’s proposal to lift the border. This included former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Richard Burgon and now Your Party Zarah Sultana.

July 17, 2024: Shortly after winning the election, the new Labor Government set up a child poverty working group to work on a new child poverty strategy to consider whether the cap should be removed.

June 17, 2025: The Scottish government has announced it will effectively lift the cap from March 2026, offering payments to affected families

May 27, 2025: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson says the government is considering scrapping the two-child allowance limit but warns it would be ‘very expensive’

November 26, 2025: Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the title will be removed from April 2026

Methodology

The Daily Mail calculated the relationship between immigrants and the removal of the two-child benefit cap by combining three official data sets.

The number of households affected by the two-child benefit cap and therefore likely to benefit from its removal is published by the DWP.

This data was then combined with the total number of households in the Department of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s council tax base to calculate the percentage of households in the area who would benefit.

Finally, these numbers were combined with the percentage of foreign-born residents in each local government, taken from the 2021 Census.

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