UK net migration 20% lower in 2024 than first thought, ONS says

Net migration to the UK last year was 20% lower than previously thought, according to revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The number, which is the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was reduced by 86,000 people, rising to 345,000 in 2024.

The driving factor behind the change is that more British citizens are thought to have emigrated in 2024 than initially recorded, with 100,000 fewer currently living in the UK.

Immigration has reached a higher level than previously thought, with 944,000 people added to the UK population between April 2022 and March 2023, figures show. Previous estimates predicted that number would be 906,000 by June 2023.

The new figures make little change to the overall forecast for net migration to the UK between 2021 and 2024, showing a slight decrease from 2.6 million to 2.5 million in the revised report.

While successive Conservative governments have sought to reduce immigration to the UK, Labor argued in its manifesto last year that increased immigration “reduces the incentives for businesses to train locally”.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in May announced measures that he said would reduce net migration “significantly” over the next four years. Its proposals included a plan to ban the hiring of care workers from abroad, tighten access to skilled worker visas and increase costs for employers.

The ONS has been rebuilding the system used to produce official migration estimates since 2020. Before the pandemic, statisticians asked small numbers of travelers at airports and ports about their travel plans and used those answers to calculate how many people would come to stay.

However, the director of the Migration Observatory think tank, Dr. According to Madeleine Sumption, the results obtained with this method were “incredibly poor” for British citizens.

ONS officials said the new figures are based on how often people appear on tax and benefit records and provide a more accurate and active reflection of migrant activity in the UK.

Based on this method, the ONS estimates that 257,000 British citizens will leave the UK in 2024, while 143,000 Britons living abroad will return. This means that net migration of Britons (the difference between departures and arrivals) is 114,000 people, rather than the original estimate of 17,000.

Dr Sumption cautions that these figures are “still inexact” because they do not measure when someone enters or leaves the country. This can cause problems when someone disappears from tax and benefit data because they stay in the country and live off savings.

If we used this method, such a person would often be counted as a migrant and the migration figures would be skewed. The ONS has stopped using this method to measure EU migration, instead using visa and border data shared by the Home Office.

Data obtained under the old system estimated there were 96,000 fewer EU citizens in the UK by the end of 2024, but the new system has revised this estimate up to 69,000.

Critics have largely attributed the recent rise to changes introduced by Boris Johnson’s government from 2021.

The three main factors were identified as the increase in work visas, particularly in health and social care, the increase in student visas and the opening of humanitarian aid routes to people from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan.

During that period, small boat crossings also increase. So far this year, 39,075 people have crossed the Channel.

Both Conservative and Labor governments have tried to tackle rising immigration figures. Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced restrictions on the right of students and care workers to bring their families to the UK.

On Monday, Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood announced: Radical changes in the asylum systemHe said it was “out of control and unfair”.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Mahmood said: “If we fail to deal with this crisis, we will lead more people down a path that starts with anger and ends with hate.”