UK’s smallest bird of prey among 200 species at risk of extinction, study finds | Climate crisis
Britain’s smallest bird of prey, the merlin, is one of more than 200 species that will become extinct in Britain unless action is taken to curb emissions and unsustainable land use.
There is a 20-year window in which decisions about climate and land use will determine the fate of dozens of Britain’s native species, according to the UK Center for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH).
By 2050, the British Isles, already one of the world’s most nature-consuming regions, face an ecological “point of no return”, it has been stated.
Dr D., senior ecologist at UKCEH and lead author of the study. “Our results show that the next 20 years will be decisive,” said Rob Cooke. in the journal Nature Communications. “The choices we make now will put Britain on a path towards either accelerating biodiversity loss or nature’s recovery.”
Cooke and his colleagues modeled six plausible future scenarios involving varying levels of greenhouse gas emissions and changing land management practices. Better-case scenarios included strong action on emissions, sustainable land management, reduced meat and dairy consumption, and a general societal shift towards valuing the environment.
The worst-case scenario involved environmentally damaging agricultural and urban intensification and greenhouse gas emissions putting the world on course for global warming of 4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
In such a scenario, 196 plant species, 31 birds and seven butterflies would become extinct in Britain; these losses will be more than three times the historical extinction rate. Many parts of the country will lose up to 20% of existing native species.
Cooke added: “Some species that have been a part of our landscapes for centuries, including the UK’s smallest bird of prey, the merlin, mountain ringleader and large heath butterflies, as well as plants such as burnt orchid, Parnassus grass and Alpine gentian, are now at risk of disappearing.
“This will negatively impact local habitats and ecological functions ranging from soil health and nutrient cycling to pollination and food production, creating knock-on effects for wildlife and people.”
Even under milder warming scenarios there could still be major disruption to Britain’s biodiversity; The effects of global warming and habitat destruction so far may mean it is too late to save many species.
But there is still hope for others. The study estimated that if society adopted more sustainable climate and land use policies, 69 fewer species could become extinct compared to the worst-case scenario.
