UN flags possible El Nino comeback this year as neutral conditions emerge
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the recent weak La Nina is expected to give way to neutral conditions, which could turn into El Nino before the end of 2026.
La Nina is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that cools surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It causes changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
The three-month window from March to May has a 60 percent chance of neutral conditions, a 30 percent chance of La Nina conditions and a 10 percent chance of El Nino conditions, the WMO said.
There is a 70 percent chance of neutral conditions occurring in April-June.
In May-July, the probability of neutral conditions decreases to 60 percent, and the probability of El Nino formation decreases to 40 percent.
“The WMO community will carefully monitor conditions over the coming months to inform decision-making,” said Celeste Saulo, who heads the UN’s weather and climate agency. “The most recent El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest El Niños on record and played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.”
El Niño contributed to 2023 being the second warmest year in history and 2024 being the hottest year of all time.
Above average temperatures
WMO highlighted that naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Niño occur in the setting of human-caused climate change, which “increases global temperatures over the long term, exacerbates extreme weather and climate events, and affects seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns.”
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina help us prevent millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, energy and water management,” said Saulo.
“They are also an important part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, thereby saving lives,” he said.
WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate update says there is a widespread global signal of above-average land surface temperatures from March to May.
Precipitation forecasts in the equatorial Pacific show a La Nina-like pattern, but in other parts of the world the signals are more mixed.
